NSW election state of play: Labor majority very likely

While a Labor minority government cannot technically yet be ruled out, it is all but certain Labor will govern with a majority with just under half the votes left to count.

Premier-elect Chris Minns and wife Anna Minns celebrate Labor’s election win in NSW with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

Labor is on track to form a majority government in NSW after ­recording a 6.3 percentage point two-party-preferred swing.

Requiring 47 seats to govern in its own right, Labor has won 45 seats and leads in four out of eight other seats too close to call.

Labor’s return to power after 12 years in the political wilderness in NSW was secured on the back of a 3.8 percentage point primary vote swing in its favour, while the ­Coalition government parties suffered substantial falls.

The Liberal Party lost 4.7 per cent of its primary vote, while the Nationals were down 2.1 per cent with about half of the statewide vote counted.

One Nation and the Greens had modest gains of 0.7 and 0.6 points respectively, while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers lost two percentage points.

Labor has picked up three seats from the Liberals – Riverstone in northwest Sydney, East Hills in southwest Sydney, and Heathcote, which spans from south Sydney to northern Wollongong – and looks on track to claim Camden, Parramatta, Penrith and South Coast.

The Coalition, which has 27 seats on current counting, has so far conceded 10 seats and looks likely to lose more, with another 10 involving the Liberal Party too close to call.

The Nationals have held on to 11 of their 13 seats from the previous parliament. Monaro in southeastern NSW looks likely to flip to Labor, while Port Macquarie has been snatched by the Liberals after sitting MP Leslie Williams switched parties.

The Greens have held on to two of their three seats from the previous parliament. It is still unclear what will come of the last seat, Balmain in Sydney’s inner west, which currently shows a slim Greens lead over Labor.

Six of the previous parliament’s seven independents have either retained, or looking like to retain, their seats. Gareth Ward, former Liberal member for Kiama who was suspended from parliament for facing charges of sexual and indecent assault, slightly trails Labor candidate Katelin McInerney.

In total, 12 are seats in the toss-up category and how they fall will determine the balance of power in the 58th Legislative Assembly.

Labor is in play in several seats still in doubt. Drummoyne, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Miranda, Oatley, Ryde and Terrigal are still a toss-up between the two major parties.

So far, there are 16 seats in which Labor enjoyed a two-digit two-party-preferred swing towards it from the Coalition.

The only seats where the Liberal Party made any inroads of more than a five percentage point swing were Cabramatta and Liverpool, both safe Labor electorates.

Outgoing Premier Dominic Perrottet received a scare in ­Epping, but looks likely to hold on despite an 8.5 two-party-preferred percentage point swing against.

The Climate 200-backed independents had a poor showing compared to the crusading teal wave in wealthy Liberal electorates in three capital cities at last year’s federal election.

The teal candidates have either lost or are likely to lose in Lane Cove, North Shore and Manly.

Pittwater and Wollondilly are on a knife’s edge between the teal candidates and their Liberal counterparts.

The results mean Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff will be the only Liberal at the national cabinet, surrounded by all-Labor commonwealth, state and territory leaders.