Northern NSW in the firing line from Cyclone Alfred just three years after catastrophic floods

Residents of northern NSW are preparing for a third 1-in-100 year weather event in under a decade

Eli Roth clears mud and debris from a drain in his street in Lismore. Picture: Dan Peled/Getty Images

Northern NSW towns including Lismore are facing days of flooding with predicted heavy rainfall from Cyclone Alfred later this week.

Just three years after Lismore was hit by widespread flooding, meteorologists are predicting ­rainfall of up to 600mm in the region between Wednesday and ­Saturday.

In the southern hemisphere, areas south of a cyclone’s centre experience the worst of the cyclonic weather, putting the stretch from the Gold Coast in southeast Queensland down to Byron Bay in northeast NSW in the firing line.

Tropical Alfred Cyclone Forecast Track Map. Source: The Bureau of Meteorology

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Dean Narramore said: “We could see winds gusting over 120km/hour in those regions,” he said.

“Particularly in elevated and coastal areas, areas like the Gold Coast down to Yamba could experience gusts even higher than that. In terms of rainfall, northeast NSW areas of Lismore and Byron Bay are looking at 150mm to 300mm per day from Thursday.”

Mr Narramore warned that Alfred’s heavy rainfall threatened to bring major flooding to Lismore, a town which experienced catastrophic floods in 2022 from torrential rain, and in 2017 due to Cyclone Debbie.

Lismore residents John de Manincor and Susan Daysa fill sandbags in preparation for heavy rain ahead of Cyclone Alfred. Picture: NewsWire/Glenn Campbell

“We’re likely to see river rises around Lismore, so people around there should definitely be preparing for flooding,” he said.

“Rainfall totals are not predicted to reach 2022 levels, but we’re not far below, and with the added danger of cyclonic winds residents should certainly be preparing for Alfred.”

Wilsons River in Lismore was upgraded from a moderate to major risk of flood on Tuesday.

NSW Premier Chris Minns alerted northern NSW residents that 40 SES flood rescue teams had been deployed to the region in case of a major disaster.

“Those communities have gone through massive amounts of flooding in recent years and this is the last thing they want to hear,” he said. “Act early, be prepared, listen to information so we can limit the amount of people potentially losing their lives.”

Flooded scenes in Molesworth St, Lismore, NSW, Wednesday, March 30, 2022. Heavy overnight rain has again forced the evacuation of residents in Lismore in northern NSW as the mayor says the town centre is headed for inundation. Picture: AAP

Lismore councillor and Flood Risk Management Committee chair “Big Rob”, said Lismore residents were beginning to panic.

“We’ve had two 1-in-100 year flooding events in the past nine years, and this could be a third,” he said.

“It’s been pretty dry for the last month so we will get some ground absorption, but with the amount of rain coming we will definitely get flooding.

Lismore City councillor and Lismore Flood Risk Management Committee chair Big Rob.

“A lot of businesses in town are especially panicked.

“I don’t think a lot of the shops could recover from a third major flood. The ones that did come back got a lot of financial support in 2022, I don’t think we’ll get that again unless it’s a monster flood.”

Mr Rob was also concerned that Alfred’s gale force winds would be particularly destructive in Lismore.

The town of Lismore starts the mammoth clean up after flood waters engulfed the town following 2017 Cyclone Debbie. Picture: Nathan Edwards

“The gusts are going to be a big problem. The trees are all dry so we’re going to see trees snapping off,” he said.

“But at this stage we’re still waiting to see what happens. I’m trying to encourage people to stay calm and just listen to advice from the SES and the BoM.”