Newspoll on point with Queensland election prediction

Newspoll has successfully predicted the result of the Queensland election and managed to capture the late campaign swing towards Labor.

LNP leader David Crisafulli during the party function in Brisbane. Picture: NewsWire/Tertius Pickard

Newspoll successfully predicted the result of the Queensland election, including a late swing towards Labor.

Published exclusively in The Australian on Friday, Newspoll predicted the first preference results of the Liberal National Party and Labor, and forecast a majority government led by David Crisafulli.

The LNP received 41.9 per cent of the actual primary vote compared to Newspoll’s predicted 42 per cent, while Labor hit 32.8 per cent compared to the poll’s 33 per cent.

Newspoll predicted an eight per cent primary vote for One Nation, which 8.05 per cent, and an eleven per cent primary vote for the Greens, which received 9.54 per cent, a difference that was within the margin of error.

     

Campbell White, managing director of Pyxis Polling and Insights which conducts the research for Newspoll, said “it was another really good result”.

“Newspoll was once again the most accurate poll of all the polls that were in the marketplace,” Dr White said.

The poll of 1151 Queensland voters conducted in the third week of the campaign also managed to captured the resurgence in the Labor vote late in the campaign after more than that a third of votes were cast, and which was evident in the early count of polling booths from election day.

Newspoll had predicted a two party preferred vote of 52.5 per cent for the LNP and 47.5 per cent for Labor which, although the Electoral Commission of Queensland has yet to release the statewide results for preference flows, will be within the margin of error. It had previously correctly predicted the actual result in the most recent federal, NSW, ­Victorian and South Australian elections to within a one percentage point margin.