Election 2025: Newspoll leader a week out from election has always won

Every government that has held a two-party-preferred lead in Newspoll one week before polling day has gone on to win the election.

Anthony Albanese visits the electorate of Banks in Sydney’s south on Monday. Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

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Every government that has held a two-party-preferred lead in Newspoll one week before polling day has gone on to win the election, while the four successful oppositions all held an eight-point lead at this point of the campaign.

The latest Newspoll published in The Australian on Monday showed the Albanese government holding a lead of 52 per cent to 48 per cent after preferences, putting Labor in a strong position to retain power, possibly with a majority.

Anthony Albanese, with Indie the dog, campaigns in the electorate of Banks in Sydney’s south on Monday alongside candidate Zhi Soon. Picture: Jason Edwards/NewsWire

Since Newspoll began calculating preference flows for the 1993 election, four governments have held a 2PP lead one week before polling day – John Howard’s Coalition in 2001 and 2004, Julia Gillard’s Labor in 2010 and Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition in 2016 – and each won another term. Although Mr Howard comfortably held on to majority government, Ms Gillard was forced into minority power and Mr Turnbull saw a 14-seat majority shrink to one seat after the election.

Paul Keating’s Labor government was level 50-50 on the two-party-preferred vote one week out from the 1993 election and also won another term. Although no opposition has come from behind with only a week to go, two governments managed to turn the tide in the final week: the Howard Coalition in 1998 and the Morrison Coalition in 2019. Both trailed 51-49 per cent with a week to go.

At each of the four change-of-government elections in the Newspoll era – 1996, 2007, 2013 and 2022 – the opposition held a 54-46 lead one week before polling day.

Anthony Albanese’s rating of 51 per cent on the question of who would make the better prime minister is the highest one week before election day in 35 years, with only Bob Hawke in 1987 (59 per cent) and 1990 (54 per cent) having polled higher at this point of the campaign.

Although the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating of minus 9 a week before polling day would be the third lowest of any prime minister who won another term – ahead of only Hawke (minus 13 in 1990) and Mr Turnbull (minus 14 in 2016) – all three faced an opposition leader with a worse net satisfaction rating: Andrew Peacock (minus 44 in 1990), Bill Shorten (minus 15 in 2016) and Peter Dutton (minus 24 in 2025).

Peter Dutton checks out the price of meat at the Good Food Distributors in Salamander Bay, NSW, on Monday. Picture: Getty Images

Mr Dutton’s latest net satisfaction rating is the lowest for an ­opposition leader one week before the election since Mr Peacock in 1990.