Low turnout expected in Cook amid likely Liberal by-election walkover

The electoral commission has urged voters to hit the polls amid potential record-low turnout for Saturday’s by-election that, bar a monumental plot twist, will swap a Liberal with a Liberal.

The by-election comes after former prime minister Scott Morrison retired from politics. Picture: NCA NewsWire

The electoral commission has urged voters in the southern ­Sydney seat of Cook to hit the polls amid fears of a record low turnout for Saturday’s federal by-­election.

Pending an M. Night Shyamalan plot twist, outgoing former prime minister Scott Morrison will be replaced by fellow Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy. Such is the seat’s blue hue, it is more a question of how much Mr Kennedy will win by rather than whether he will at all.

Labor is not fielding a candidate, with sources previously citing reluctance to use resources in a seat the party wouldn’t win.

Although Mr Kennedy is more than likely to be delivered to parliament come Saturday night, Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rodgers urged voters to “have their say” amid historically low pre-poll numbers.

“While by-elections traditionally have lower turnout than a full federal election, it’s still below expectations, and just as important to have your say,” Mr Rogers said.

“Although it may be that more people vote on by-election day this time around, typically if someone casts their vote early in one election, they’ll do so in the next one – this is why the numbers we’re seeing makes us worry about low participation.”

Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy. Picture: Ashleigh Tullis

The commissioner revealed early voting numbers were down about 11 per cent compared with the same period at the 2022 federal election and nearly 13 per cent for the same period before October’s voice referendum.

“We’ve sent every Cook household an official guide, we’re advertising, we’re sending text messages and emails. We’re also on social media regularly and in discussion with media representatives,” Mr Rogers said.

“While it is more communication for a single by-election than we’ve ever done, ultimately we know that political campaigning activities and media coverage are always key vehicles for awareness and motivation.”

The seat was held by Mr Morrison with a 12 per cent per cent margin in 2022. Labor’s absence should bolster that margin for Mr Kennedy, who beat Carmelo Pesce in the March preselection, despite the popular Sutherland Shire Mayor’s support from the moderate wing of the party.

Vinay Kolhatkar, Libertarian candidate for the upcoming by-election. Picture: Instagram

Mr Kennedy, although strongly backed by the right, has gone to lengths to distance himself from any one faction, and garnered support from former premiers Nick Greiner and Dominic Perrottet, as well as former prime minister Tony Abbott.

The Greens, running local Martin Moore in the six-person race, are tipped to poll second to Mr Kennedy, although the party’s wider pro-Palestine stance is likely to alienate some in an area with strong Jewish ties and support for Israel.

The Libertarians, previously the Liberal Democrats, are running author Vinay Kolhatkar, who The Australian revealed on Thursday had been criticised by faith leaders for a series of anti-Islam comments and posts.

The Animal Justice Party is running Natasha Brown, the Sustainable Australia and Universal Basic Income Party is running Simone Gagatam. Independent Roger Woodward is also running.