LNP on track to hold Fadden, after $600k by-election splurge
The Liberal National Party is on track to hold Fadden after spending more than $600,000 on the by-election triggered by Stuart Robert’s departure.
The Liberal National Party is on track to hold the safe Gold Coast seat of Fadden, after spending more than $600,000 on the campaign for the by-election triggered by former Morrison government minister Stuart Robert’s abrupt departure.
Party sources told The Weekend Australian the significant spend included several direct mailouts to voters in the northern Gold Coast electorate, bolstered by social media advertising, designed to shore up Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s leadership.
The Liberal Party was spooked after Labor won the Aston by-election in Victoria in April, following the resignation of Liberal MP Alan Tudge – another minister implicated in the Robodebt controversy, along with Mr Robert.
Even though Aston was a marginal seat and Fadden is held by the LNP on a safe margin of 10.6 per cent, a Gold Coast source said it was “all hands to the mast” to ensure Mr Dutton was not seen to lose ground.
“Aston scared the horses,” the source said. “At home in Queensland, if he loses ground in Fadden, Dutton’s cactus.”
Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is the LNP candidate. Joined by his wife Lauren at Coomera Rivers State School on Saturday morning, Mr Caldwell said he was hopeful he had earned the support of voters.
“It’s been a very energetic campaign and one that I’m very proud of,” he said.
“All by elections are tough, and they have their own quirks and we haven’t taken anything for granted.”
He said he understand the issues that are most concerning to his electorate, cost of living and crime, and has promised to deliver solutions to his electorate.
“I have a genuine connection with the community through my almost 12 years in council,” he said.
“People know me and I know them … and I hope that I can earn their support.”
Mr Caldwell, who is listed 12th on the AEC ballot paper out of 13 candidates, is up against Labor’s Letitia Del Fabbro, Greens candidate Scott Turner and Sandy Roach of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party.
He said he has been receiving feedback from constituents on the Voice to parliament referendum.
“There’s a clear message that they are very concerned about what it might mean for them.”
Labor’s Ms Del Fabbro ran at last year’s federal election against Mr Robert and secured a swing of nearly 3.6 per cent to her on a two-party preferred basis.
But the ALP is managing expectations that she has a chance of an upset win in Fadden, after party elder Graham Richardson speculated she could secure a narrow victory.
Mr Richardson’s surprise intervention prompted Queensland Labor senator Murray Watt to describe the electorate as a “completely unwinnable seat” for Labor, and raised the stakes for Mr Dutton.
“We have entered this by-election knowing we have no chance – not just Buckley’s chance – no chance of winning this by-election,” Senator Watt said.
“It’s a safe LNP seat, but we thought it was still important to offer people an opportunity and it’s given our local branch members to get out there and campaign. Really, if Peter Dutton cannot get a swing towards the LNP of 4 per cent in this election he’s doing something wrong.”
Labor and LNP campaign sources said Mr Robert’s presence could have been harming the LNP’s vote, predicting his departure could lead to an uptick in the vote for the conservatives.
But there are complicating factors.
LNP state secretary Ben Riley emailed members this week, warning “history is not on our side”.
“Don’t forget, by-elections held within a year of a general election often favour the government,” Mr Riley told members.
“That’s why we must keep working hard, right up to Saturday night.”
Labor has been advertising on social media to tie the LNP to Mr Robert’s handling of the Robodebt crisis, after a damning royal commission report.
But Mr Dutton has insisted he believed voters were “not stupid enough” to be swayed by the issue and the performance of the Morrison government.
He accused Labor of “politicising” the Robodebt issue to gain ground in Fadden.
“But I think the people of Fadden are much smarter than that,” he said. “They’ve seen the personal smear against Cameron Caldwell, they’ve seen the political advantage in the timing of the release of this report … people aren’t stupid.”
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