Labor pulls ahead in Newspoll as Scott Morrison loses ground

Labor has stretched its lead over the Coalition after the interest rate rise, with Anthony ­Albanese closing the gap on Scott Morrison as preferred prime minister.

Scott Morrison celebrates Mother’s Day in Melbourne on Sunday with wife Jenny, daughters Abbey, 14 and Lily, 12 and his mother Marion. Picture: Jason Edwards

Labor has stretched its lead over the Coalition in the wake of last week’s interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank, with Anthony Albanese closing the gap on Scott Morrison as the preferred prime minister.

As both leaders prepare for the final fortnight of the election campaign, female voters have also turned to Labor as the party they believe would be better at managing the worsening cost-of-living pressures.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows popular support for Labor lifting a point to 39 per cent, with the Coalition falling a point to 35 per cent. This is the largest margin Labor has held over the Coalition since the start of the six-week election campaign.

The shift in underlying support towards Labor has also increased its two-party-preferred vote lead. That measure now stands at 54/46, a two-point turnaround over the past week.

The national figures, if repeated on polling day on May 21, would point to a considerable Labor majority victory, with the possibility of a hung parliament looking remote.

Mr Morrison has also suffered a fall in his approval ratings following a campaign week dominated by a debate over the cost of living, following the RBA’s decision to lift the official cash rate in response to the surge in inflation.

This has translated into a lift for Mr Albanese in the head-to-head contest over who voters think would make the better prime minister. The Opposition Leader’s rating has increased three points to 42 per cent. Mr Morrison remains narrowly in front after falling a point to 44 per cent. It is the slimmest margin between the two leaders since early April, with 14 per cent of voters still uncommitted.

However, it is unlikely to have reflected the full weight of voter reaction to Mr Albanese’s campaign stumble over the NDIS when on Thursday he failed to fully explain Labor’s policy. A third of the Newspoll survey was conducted prior to his latest gaffe.

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has increased three points to 42 per cent. Picture: Liam Kidston

With the election contest turning on the cost of living, voters have nominated Labor marginally ahead of the Coalition as the party considered better at managing their concerns. When asked which government would be better at managing cost-of-living pressures, 44 per cent nominated an Albanese-led Labor government over 41 per cent in favour of a Morrison-led Coalition government.

Male voters were evenly split at 44 per cent but female voters leant heavily towards Labor – 45 per cent to 38 per cent, with 17 per cent undecided. Attitudes were also heavily polarised among age groups, with 59 per cent of voters aged over 65 nominating the ¬Coalition and 57 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds backing Labor.

Those aged 50 to 64 were also strongly in favour of the Coalition – 45 per cent to 38 per cent, while 45 per cent of the 35- to 49-year-old demographic nominated Labor compared to 36 per cent for the Coalition on this question.

Satisfaction in Mr Morrison’s performance during a week punctuated by the hike in interest rates and the continuing fallout over the Solomon Islands’ security pact with China fell three points to 41 per cent, while those dissatisfied rose four points to 55 per cent, giving him a net negative approval rating of minus 14 – the lowest score for Mr Morrison since early March.

Mr Albanese lifted a point to 41 per cent and improved his dissatisfaction rating two points to 47 per cent, leaving him with a net negative rating of minus 6.

Despite the national numbers pointing to a Labor win, campaign strategists report a significant softness in the electorate, indicating the potential for voters to switch their vote, and the Liberal Party is still remaining optimistic about its chances in several key outer metropolitan electorates. It is also hopeful of winning back those Coalition voters who had parked their vote with conservative minor parties, and shoring up preference flows.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is at 5 per cent, which is almost two points above its election result in 2019. Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was also stable at 4 per cent and consistent with the level of support it achieved in 2019.