Labor momentum in Newspoll points to firm majority in the federal election

Scott Morrison needed the contest to tighten with only two weeks to run. Newspoll has shown the opposite.

Scott Morrison’s task of retaining government is now considerable.

According to the latest Newspoll, Labor would not only win government but it would win with a comfortable majority.

Any notion of a hung parliament is extinguished on these latest numbers, irrespective of whether any Climate 200 independents get elected or not.

Morrison needed the contest to tighten with only two weeks to run. Newspoll has shown the opposite.

The momentum appears to be pointing Labor’s way, as the national numbers indicate that voters are looking to change the government with their eyes wide open.

The lift in Labor’s primary vote to 39 per cent – having risen consistently over the past four weeks – says this view has only hardened.

Applying a uniform swing of 5.5 per cent, which Newspoll suggests, the Coalition could stand to lose 16 seats.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese. Picture: Liam Kidston

But Anthony Albanese is only one stuff-up away from losing the election.

With the expected variation in swings seat by seat, anything is still possible.

Liberal strategists say the picture emerging from a swag of 20 key seats suggests the race is tighter than the national numbers bear out. They would be expected to say that.

But the Labor camp also admits that any more significant gaffes by Anthony Albanese could easily turn the tables.

In Victoria’s outer suburban electorates, for example, both sides agree that the several seats are in play. They could go either way.

Western Australia is reported to be looking far less dire for the Coalition as well.

Labor’s task to win government in its own right becomes more difficult should it lose a couple of seats.

And the latest Newspoll didn’t entirely capture the Labor leader’s howler of last Thursday.

Nevertheless, Morrison will have to pull off a similar feat to John Howard or Paul Keating to deliver a fourth term for the Coalition.

Keating won the 1993 election a point behind John Hewson as preferred prime minister. While the polls tightened during the campaign, Labor was trailing 47-53 a month out from polling day.

Howard won the 1998 election a point behind Kim Beazley. The final Newspoll of that campaign had the Coalition trailing Labor 47-53.

But, since then, no prime minister has won an election trailing, or with such a small lead over the opposition leader as the better prime minister, as Morrison currently has over Anthony Albanese.

If there is any historical guide, Keating’s predicament is probably the closest.

Keating as former treasurer won in 1993 despite all predictive accounts suggesting he wouldn’t, just like Morrison as former treasurer did in 2019.

And, while the preferred PM measure favoured Keating marginally in 1996, it didn’t end up predicting the result.

By then he was also deeply unpopular and, despite Howard being also poorly regarded, the Coalition won in a landslide.

The question is whether the current polls reflect the high level of disengagement among voters, which all internal polling suggests it is during this campaign, or whether it signals a return to trend prior to the campaign, which would suggest that voters may have made up their mind.