Voters divided by education and age on Indigenous voice to parliament: Newspoll

Support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen below 50 per cent in every state and is ahead of the no vote in only two.

Support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen below 50 per cent in every state and is ahead of the no vote in only two, with the referendum now split heavily between age, education and state.

An exclusive Newspoll demographic analysis shows the yes case so far failing to secure an absolute majority in any state.

While the race was still close, the referendum based on current attitudes would fail to meet both requirements of a referendum.

The results stand in stark contrast to an analysis in April, before the final wording of the referendum was settled, which showed majority support in every state but Queensland.

The fresh analysis shows the yes vote nationally at 43 per cent when averaged over Newspoll surveys between May and July this year, with the no vote at 46 per cent.

The April results, covering the three months from February show overall support at 54 per cent compared to 38 per cent for the no vote.

The yes case now leads in only NSW and South Australia, is tied with a no vote in Victoria and trails in Western Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.

The comprehensive demographic breakdown also reveals stark divisions within the community based on age and education.

Those most likely to support the voice were higher-income earners, the university educated, renters and the young.

Those firmly opposed include voters with no tertiary education, retirees, mortgagors and people who owned their home outright.

The fresh analysis shows the demographic hurdles the yes campaign must overcome with the federal government embroiled in a new political argument over its ambitions to follow the voice with treaty and truth-telling, fulfilling the three pillars of the Uluru Statement.

For the referendum to succeed, a national majority in the affirmative and a majority of the six states is required.

The government has confirmed it will be held sometime between October and December, with an announcement on the dates expected within the next few weeks.

The demographic analysis was conducted on Newspoll surveys taken between May 31 and July 15 based on a sample size of 5417 interviews with voters across the country.

Opposition to the voice was strongest in Queensland at 54/39 followed by WA 52/39. Tasmania was also a no state with 48 per cent against and 43 per cent opposed.

Victoria was evenly split at 44/44, with SA the most supportive – 48/42. And in NSW, the yes vote was ahead of the no vote at 45/42.

Broken down to household incomes, it shows those earning more than $150,000 a year were the strongest proponents of the voice with 48 per cent in favour and 43 per cent against.

Support fell away the lower the household income, with 46 per cent of those on incomes of $100,000 and $149,000 in favour and 44 per cent opposed.

Sentiment then swung the other way for those with household incomes of between $50,000 and $99,000, with 47 per cent supporting a no vote and 44 per cent intending to vote yes.

Strongest opposition to the voice was among low-income households with 54 per cent of those under $50,000 a year opposed compared to just 36 per cent in favour.

However, the strong no vote in this demographic was comprised mainly of retirees.

Those low-income households who were not retirees were more likely to be in favour of the voice.

Men were also significantly more inclined to vote no – 49 per cent to 42 per cent.

Despite an increase in opposition to the voice among women in the most recent Newspoll, when averaged over the quarter, female voters were evenly split at 44/44.

There were also stark divisions based on people’s housing circumstances.

Renters were more likely to vote yes – 51/37 – compared to those with a mortgage who were more inclined to vote no – 45/43.

This was a construct of the age demographic with younger voters more likely to be renting.

A majority of people who owned their home outright, however, and consistent with older demographics, were against the voice – 58/34.

Support among those with university degrees was highest - 55/37 – while those without any qualifications were against at 51/37.

The highest level of support was among 18-34 year olds with 62 per cent saying they would vote yes compared to 27 per cent behind the no case. Support was down on the previous quarterly analysis when 68 per cent of those in the age group were in favour.

The vote was reversed for those aged over 65, with 64 per cent against and 28 per cent in favour.

Those aged between 50 and 64 were also strongly against at 54/35 compared to 35-49 year olds who were more in favour at 47/42.

Those in part-time work were more in favour than those in full-time jobs, with the yes vote ahead of the no vote among both groups.

When it came to retirees, 63 per cent were against and 30 in favour.

Non-English speaking ethnic voters were strongly supportive – 55 per cent to 34 per cent – with English-speaking voters lined up against the referendum with 48 per cent opposed and 42 per cent in favour.