Age and the states the greatest hurdles now facing the voice

The yes vote has not improved its stakes in any state or virtually any demographic over the past three months. Picture: Tamati Smith/Getty Images

At a macro level, the problem for the voice is obvious. The yes vote is failing to achieve more than 50 per cent in any state, let alone nationally.

Queensland and Western Australia are lost and Tasmanian is in trouble. In Victoria, the vote is tied at 44-44.

That leaves NSW and South Australia as the only two states where the yes vote is outpolling the no vote.

The trend is down across the board. The yes vote has not improved its stakes in any state or virtually any demographic over the past three months. Even younger voters have come off, although from a high base.

Jim Chalmers last week stated the obvious when he admitted the yes campaign needed to lift its game. They needed to start talking to people other than themselves.

“Now we’ve got to convince people, we’ve got to talk to people and we’ve got to engage them and not just people who already agree with us,” he said.

The Yes campaign was always in danger of the debate being shaped as a contest between an elite group of Australians and everybody else.

How it has played out has been predominantly a factor of age. And it is the fundamental challenge facing Anthony Albanese and voice supporters.

The demographic analysis of Newspoll surveys confirms that support was strongest among the young, the university educated and the well-off.

But the dividing line between support and opposition lines up clearly along a generational divide – with education, working status and housing demographics all a construct of age.

The less educated and those who have a mortgage or own their home outright are all more likely to vote no.

Higher incomes earners, the well-educated, renters, and the younger generation (who are predominantly renters) – many among these groups are Greens voters – are significantly more likely to be voting yes.

Low-income households, excluding retirees, were also in favour.

The decline in support since the beginning of the year has been across the board and not confined to any particular group. Which goes to the Treasurer’s point.

Even among those who were most in favour of the voice six months ago, support has fallen away to varying degrees.

The Yes camp would be expecting some of these to come back but that won’t be enough.

Opposition among key groups already opposed has hardened, and they will be more difficult to shift.

The troubling element for the Yes campaign is the notable decline in support among women voters. This is the key group that has shifted from strongly in favour to an equal footing between the two camps.

In April, the split was 56 per cent in favour and 38 per cent against when a question was asked about the voice to parliament but not the specific wording of the referendum.

The latest analysis shows this number is now split at 44-44.

The No camp sees this as no surprise, as it set out to target them in its social media marketing early on.

The Chalmers call is right. The Yes camp needs to focus its attention on those who don’t agree with them but at the same time defend the territory it already has.