‘Make or break’ states trend No but Yes camp hopeful of late swing

The two so-called make-or-break states - Tasmania and South Australia – appeared to be tracking for voice No votes, but Yes campaigners remained hopeful late pitches could swing undecided voters.

Michael Mansell was confident Tasmania would vote No.

The two so-called “make or break” states – Tasmania and South Australia – appeared to be tracking for a No majority, but some Yes campaigners remained hopeful their late pitches could swing undecided voters.

Newspoll suggested both key states were tracking towards No votes, but Tasmanian Yes campaigners, including Indigenous leaders Rodney Dillon and Nick Cameron, remained hopeful, based on feedback at pre-poll booths and doorknocking.

Mr Dillon, who is co-chair of the Tasmanian Regional Aboriginal Communities Alliance and a First Nations Referendum Working Group member, told The Weekend Australian there had been a recent rise in Yes sentiment in his state.

Tasmanian Regional Aboriginal Communities Alliance co-chair Rodney Dillon. Picture: Linda Higginson

“I think Tasmania is (turning Yes) – people are thinking it’s important as a country to have a Yes vote and that the voice is not hard a thing to do,” he said.

“It looked a bit complex before but people have come to think ‘if it’s only giving advice, it should be okay’.”

Mr Cameron, of the Melythina Tiakana Warrana Aboriginal Corporation and the First Nations Referendum Engagement Group, was also confident of a Yes vote.

“The feeling is pretty positive out on the ground, so I have my hopes up that Tassie will get over the line,” he said.

Tasmania has generally been constitutionally conservative, but he believed there was now wider awareness of the historic mistreatment of the island’s Aborigines and a desire to reconcile.

“The Tasmanian community in general probably has a sense of the history … and there is a bit of a sense of wrongs that needed to be righted,” Mr Cameron said.

However, No advocate and Aboriginal Land Council of Tasmania chair Michael Mansell said he was confident his state would vote No, arguing the Yes campaign had failed to sell the voice and had maintained a “crash or crash through mentality”.

“In Tasmania, there was no groundswell of Aboriginal community support here for it and so the public thought ‘well, if Aboriginals are indifferent to it, we don’t have to really think about it’,” Mr Mansell said. “Also, Tasmania has always been conservative on changes at a referendum, unless there’s a very compelling case put forward. And it’s clear that they didn’t think this was compelling.”

Yes campaigners conceded opposition to the voice from several peak Indigenous groups in the state had been a significant barrier for them.

However, several said a key factor driving late Yes support was strong endorsement from all three state political leaders: Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff, Labor leader Rebecca White and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff.

Mr Rockliff, who was criticised in some Yes quarters for initially “going missing” from the campaign, has since been more vocal and on Friday urged Tasmanians to vote Yes.

“Can I ask Tasmanians to consider the country and the benefits of a Yes vote (for) a voice, moving forward, listening and working with Indigenous Australians … on closing the gap around life expectancy, around incarceration, around infant mortality, around educational attainment,” he said.

“We have failed as a nation. We need to do better … We can move this country forward, in unity.”

In South Australia, strategists from both the Yes and No campaigns predicted the No vote would prevail comfortably.