Bill Shorten gains ground over asylum-seekers: Newspoll

EXCLUSIVE | Labor is clawing back ­critical electoral ground lost under Rudd-Gillard’s failed asylum-seeker policies.

Newspoll has found Bill Shorten is clawing back ­critical electoral ground lost under the Rudd-Gillard government’s failed asylum-seeker policies.

Bill Shorten is clawing back ­critical electoral ground lost under the Rudd-Gillard government’s failed asylum-seeker policies, with the trust gap between the Labor leader and Malcolm Turnbull on the issue narrowing to its closest margin since they became rivals.

A decline in confidence over Mr Turnbull’s ability to manage the issue suggests the Coalition is at risk of surrendering some of its political advantage over Labor in what has been one of its best policy strengths.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian reveals that more than a third of voters still fear Labor would “open the floodgates” to asylum-seekers’ boats if elected. However, it also reveals a softening in distrust of Labor, with Mr Shorten having vowed to maintain the Coalition’s boats turnback policy and not repeat the mistakes of the previous Labor government.

The government this week has sought to elevate boats as a key campaign issue in its bid to take back the Queensland seat of Longman in the Super Saturday by-elections on July 28, believing it to be a hot-button issue in the seat. Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton yesterday warned of the risk of boats restarting, accusing Labor candidate Susan Lamb, who was forced to resign over dual citizenship, of signalling a potential change of policy.

“We are cleaning up Labor’s mess, but it takes time,” Mr Dutton told parliament.

“The Labor Party has learned nothing at all from the Rudd and Gillard years. Look what’s happening in Europe at the moment where hundreds of thousands of people are trying to make their way across the Mediterranean. If you think that can’t happen in this country again, look no further than Labor’s past record in government.”

GRAPHIC: When the boats came … and when they didn’t

The poll — conducted nationally from last Thursday to Sunday and based on a large sample size of 1660 — reveals that 37 per cent of voters still believe Mr Shorten would “open the floodgates” if elected prime minister.

However, more voters now believe that a Labor government would either make no difference to the Coalition’s current policy of turning back boats or would improve on the policy with a more humanitarian approach.

The gap separating Mr Shorten and Mr Turnbull on who is more capable of handling the issue of asylum-seekers has ­tightened to just 17 points, after a five-point drop for the Prime Minister since December and a two-point rise for Mr Shorten.

 

The poll also exposes an 11-point turnaround since the last election and signals that the opposition pledge to maintain the Coalition’s turn-back policy and preserve offshore processing has helped Labor neutralise the issue with some voters.

It is the closest gap between a Labor and Coalition leader since 2010 when Julia Gillard vowed to reverse Labor’s open borders policy and re-open Nauru on taking the leadership from Kevin Rudd.

The former Labor government presided over an estimated 1160 deaths at sea and the arrival of more than 50,000 asylum-seekers after it dismantled the Howard government’s “Pacific solution” to close the maritime borders.

According to an Australian Parliamentary Library research paper, from 2008 to 2013 — almost all of which saw Labor in power — 51,798 asylum-seekers were allowed into Australia aboard 848 boats. The open borders policy has left a legacy caseload of 13,000 assessments still to be processed by the department of immigration.

An asylum seeker boat arrives at Christmas Island in 2012.

Despite this record, 26 per cent of voters, when reminded that some within Labor have called for a more humanitarian approach, believed that a Shorten government would improve the policy.

A further 24 per cent, however, believed that a change of government would make no difference to asylum-seeker policy.

Mr Turnbull, who has taken a hard line in his language on stopping asylum-seeker boats since being accused of being soft on the issue, was overwhelmingly backed by Coalition voters on the issue, with 87 per cent rating him as more capable than Mr Shorten. But 20 per cent of Labor voters also rated Mr Turnbull as more capable and 15 per cent of Labor voters expected the boats to begin coming again under a Labor government.

Almost half of One Nation voters could not say which leader they trusted more to handle the boats issue, suggesting many traditional Coalition voters who had defected to One Nation may not have trusted Mr Turnbull on the issue, among others.

Mr Shorten has fought a constant battle with the left wing of his caucus, and the party membership, to maintain an election commitment that a Labor government would not unravel the current turn-back policy and maintain offshore processing if elected.

Last week the Labor leader came under attack from the Greens for refusing to say whether he would commit to ending indefinite ­detention of asylum-seekers.

New ALP national president Wayne Swan, who was treasurer in the Rudd and Gillard governments, said offshore processing would remain under the next Labor government.

“Offshore processing is absolutely essential to stop the people- smugglers, but what we shouldn’t be doing is leaving people in indefinite detention,” he said yesterday. “Now these are issues that will be discussed passionately at Labor’s national conference and that will occur later in the year. But I do defend our position on this, which is the party policy, which is we should not have indefinite detention. But we do need offshore processing.”