I’ll do it again if I must, says unrepentant Dan Andrews

Daniel Andrews says he would shut down Victoria again as economists warn of lasting damage to consumer and business behaviour.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews declined to release health advice on which the five-day lockdown was based. Picture: Getty Images

Daniel Andrews says he would shut down Victoria again on health advice after announcing strict restrictions would ease overnight after five days.

Economists have warned, however, that a “rolling pattern of lockdowns” risks leaving a lasting mark on consumer and business behaviour and the state further behind others, with the most recent restrictions forecast to have cost the economy about $500m.

The Victorian Premier on Wednesday declined to release health advice on which the five-day lockdown, which began after coronavirus infections spread from hotel quarantine, was based and defended the need for restrictions. “Total case numbers would be much, much higher and it is a certainty that I would not be reporting zero cases today and the fact that restrictions are coming off,” Mr Andrews said, adding he would not rule out further lockdowns until most of the country had been vaccinated.

“I’m not prepared to pretend to the Victorian community that this is over, there can be some ­notice period but we don’t have the luxury of giving people a month’s notice,” he said.

“I’m just not in the business of ignoring advice, or shopping around for advice that suits me.”

There were no new COVID-19 cases recorded on Wednesday, with all 19 infections linked to the Melbourne Airport Holiday Inn cluster having either stayed or worked at the hotel, lived with them or dined at one private gathering with them.

National Australia Bank economist Alan Oster put the cost of the five-day lockdown at about $500m, but said it was unclear whether the state’s third lockdown would slow a rebound even after restrictions lift. “We were coming back quickly — now we will have to wait and see what happens,” he said.

Josh Frydenberg on Wednesday warned that lockdowns had a “massive economic impact” and a serious “emotional impact”.

“When you go into lockdown, it dents confidence, there is no doubt about that, and it costs businesses and households a lot of money,” the Treasurer said.

KPMG’s chief economist, Brendan Rynne, was the most critical of the uncertainty caused by the possibility of future lockdowns well into the year.

“You get a change in behaviours because of the expectation that there won’t be a sustained recovery due to what is basically a permanent cycle of lockdowns,” Dr Rynne said.

With further cases almost inevitable between now and when the country is due to be widely vaccinated against coronavirus, CBA economist Gareth Aird said the end of JobKeeper could make states “less trigger-happy” in imposing extra restrictions.

Victorians were over-represented in JobKeeper numbers in the December quarter, and the end of the wage subsidy program in March will expose those workers to the “full economic consequences” of lockdowns, he said.

“The other broader point is that there’s a tipping point at which bringing in new lockdowns hurts business and consumer confidence — all that uncertainty creates havoc around plans.”

Australian Taxation Office figures released on Monday showed the number of workers on JobKeeper fell 44 per cent in Victoria between April-September and October-December, the smallest fall among all states.

Numbers fell by 70 per cent in Western Australia, 60 per cent in NSW and 64 per cent in Queensland, those figures showed.

Restrictions in Victoria will largely return to what they were a week ago, with masks compulsory inside and outside where social distancing cannot be maintained.

Any further easing of restrictions have been postponed until at least February 26, when all known close contacts of the Holiday Inn cluster will have completed 14 days in quarantine. Overseas ­arrivals remain on hold.

“The only thing that suits all of us is to keep control of this, and yes, there’s pain and difficulty … we’ve acknowledged that and we will make announcements in good time about support for those who are doing it tough,” Mr Andrews said on Wednesday.

“But the urgent nature and the rapid nature of these decisions speak to the rapid infectivity of this virus and nothing more that.”

Mr Andrews cited cabinet confidentiality when asked whether he would release the public health advice justifying his lockdown.

He instead pointed to Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton’s public health directions, which legally underpin the lockdown but do not constitute advice.

While maintaining the lockdown had been necessary, Professor Sutton said he believed the containment of the Holiday Inn cluster had reinforced that the state’s isolation of contacts of close contacts was “the right way to go” and the best way to deal with more infectious COVID-19 variants such as the British and South African strains.

Business Council chief executive Jennifer Westacott welcomed the end of Victoria’s lockdown but said she was concerned that “every time we slam the brakes on the economy, it gets harder for businesses to open their doors and start employing again”.

“Victorians deserve to have confidence that their hotel quarantine system will work next time around, that contact tracing can contain outbreaks when they occur and that the restrictions will be proportionate to the level of risk,” Ms Westacott said.

“Across the country, we desperately need a consistent national approach to controlling out­breaks because shutdowns … can destroy businesses and jobs.”

However, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe last week said he had underestimated the pace at which economic activity rebounded following the easing of restrictions. Bank data has showed recent lockdowns in Perth and Adelaide triggered an immediate slump in spending but were followed by equally sharp recoveries.

Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Paul Guerra estimated up to $1bn was lost at the weekend.