Gutwein win: Tasmanian Liberals celebrate record third majority government

Peter Gutwein’s Libs poised for third consecutive majority government in Tasmania.

Peter Gutwein and wife Amanda cheer on son Finn playing for North Launceston at Launceston’s NTCA Ground on Sunday. Picture: Chris Crerar

Peter Gutwein’s Liberals have ­almost certainly secured a record third consecutive majority government in Tasmania, after ­voters parked protest votes with Greens and independents rather than Labor.

The Liberals will be left to sweat for 10 days while postal votes are returned and preferences distributed, having stalled on 12 seats — one shy of majority –— in the count on Sunday.

However, Mr Gutwein said it was “increasingly likely” a second seat for the Liberals in the ­Hobart-based electorate of Clark would deliver the party its 13th seat for a historic majority ­victory.

“We have won this election convincingly,“ Mr Gutwein told cheering supporters in Hobart’s tally room on Saturday night.

“It appears increasingly likely we will also govern in majority.”

 Party insiders were late on Sunday “very confident” a Liberal candidate would push out former Liberal-turned-independent Sue Hickey to claim the crucial fifth seat in Clark.

Late counting on Sunday showed the Liberals on 1.91 quotas in Clark, with Ms Hickey on .61 of a quota.

Ironically, the candidate most likely to clinch majority government for the Liberals is Madeleine Ogilvie, a former Labor MP.

 

Ms Ogilvie, a socially conservative lawyer, returned to parliament on a recount in 2019, deciding to sit as an independent in disgust at her treatment by Labor’s hard-left faction.

She joined the Liberals shortly after the state election was called five weeks ago and is now poised to beat Ms Hickey for the final seat in Clark.

Further underlying Labor’s internal problems, its highest vote winner in the southern electorate of Franklin was Dean Winter, who was added to the party’s ticket only at the 11th hour.

His candidacy was blocked by Left powerbrokers and proceeded only after the ALP national executive intervened, at the ­request of the Australian Workers Union, to override the state party administrative committee.

 There was a swing of about 1.5 per cent against the Liberals, but closer to 4.5 per cent against Labor; the Greens achieved a positive swing of about 2 per cent. The Liberals secured just under 49 per cent of the vote, with Labor about 28 per cent and the Greens 12.5 per cent.

As of Sunday, the Liberals had secured 12 seats and likely 13, in the 25-seat House of Assembly. Labor had at least eight and likely nine , the Greens had at least two and independent Kristie Johnston appeared to have won a seat.

There will now be a 10-day wait for postal votes before the carve-up of surplus votes and excluded candidate preferences determine the final seats.

After magnanimous speeches on all sides on Saturday night, Liberal campaign spokesman Michael Ferguson on Sunday sought to exploit Labor’s third consecutive unsuccessful campaign. “It’s an unavoidable fact of life for (Labor leader) Rebecca White and Labor that their civil war, their scare campaigns and lack of a real plan for Tasmania … have been exposed,” he said.

Discussion in Labor circles included a possible leadership challenge and a push for further national executive intervention to effectively run the troubled Tasmanian branch.

If, as most pundits expect, the final result is 13 Liberal, nine Labor, two Green and one independent, this will be the same numbers that effectively applied at the start of the campaign, after Ms Ogilvie joined the Liberals.

However, Mr Gutwein’s gamble of an election 10 months early will have delivered the Liberal Party a record third consecutive majority government, however thin the margin. The Premier claimed a mandate for the party’s policies, including reform of TAFE to make it more flexible and responsible to industry needs and investment in clean energy, including “green hydrogen”.

“Whilst there’s obviously some counting to be done, it’s an honour and privilege to be given that opportunity by the Tasmanian people,” he said.

“Thank you Tasmanians for the trust and faith you have placed in my and the Liberal Party… I will not forget the faith you have shown and I will not let you down.”

He acknowledged discontent at the state’s failing health system and housing shortage, vowing to deliver improvements.

 Ms White, silent on her future after a second consecutive election loss as leader, attributed the result to the government’s popular management of the state’s COVID-19 response.

“It is clear that we have fallen short of our goal of winning ­majority Labor government,” she said, acknowledging Mr Gutwein’s “impressive personal result” in the northern electorate of Bass.

“All around the country, we’ve seen incumbent governments rewarded for their management of COVID-19 and there is no doubt that Peter Gutwein and our public health officials kept our community safe — and tonight’s result reflects that.”

She also said the election result, which saw a swing against both major parties to the Greens and independents, was a “wake-up call” for the Liberals, particularly in relation to health.