Expert warns foot and mouth outbreak in Australia now a 50-50 chance

A worker treats a cow infected with foot and mouth disease at a cattle farm in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Picture: Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images

“Bali is just one big farm.”

This is the sober message from Bali resident and long-time cattle industry vet Ross Ainsworth to tourists risking economic carnage for Australia by bringing back foot and mouth disease.

“That box you tick, ‘have you been on a farm’ – most people think they have just been shopping for dresses, but Ubud, Nusa Dua, Nusa Peninda – Bali is one big farm,” he says.

Dr Ainsworth now puts the risk of an outbreak of FMD in Australia at 50-50. That compares with an 11.6 per cent probability from the federal Department of Agriculture.

In Victoria, beef analyst Simon Quilty, with 30 years of global meat trading under his belt, says in Bali farmers have stopped reporting new cases. “It’s a bit like our attitude to Covid. They are sick of it and it’s everywhere.”

Mr Quilty says a major breakout of FMD in Australia would be catastrophic. “Instantly we would lose all our markets around the world in beef but also sheep meat.”

Beef analyst Simon Quilty says Bali farmers have stopped reporting new cases of foot and mouth disease. Picture: David Geraghty/The Australian

Only 5000 of the 600,000 cattle in Bali have been vaccinated and vaccine availability is extremely low. Almost all cattle are owned by small farmers, housed for security reasons in the back yard and early every morning led by the nose to the nearest grazing, often past tourist villas.

Most of the 100 cows within 350m of Dr Ainsworth’s villa have been vaccinated but it is hit and miss. “There are no ear tags to identify them, so they tie red ribbons around the necks and then the other cows chew them off,” he says.

On Friday the Australian government announced new powers for biosecurity officers.

Dr Ainsworth’s major concern has been the lack of foot baths at airports. “When an animal is infected, it can be shedding virus on to the footpath out in front of your villa for up to four days before showing any clinical signs. You can be into the taxi and in Darwin in four hours,” he says.

Until now Indonesia has been FMD free, like Australia, the US and Britain. But nearby Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam all have endemic FMD, which has been managed through vaccination programs for decades.

Unlike Australia, Indonesia has no emergency response plan to an outbreak and no vaccine bank. “Indonesia has no money, no plan, no expertise,” Dr Ainsworth says. “And no real urgency because they don’t export anything. Their market access is unaffected.”

He expects Bali will take between six months to a year to complete vaccination, which has become the risk window for Australia.

If an outbreak occurs in Australia, the first response will be to contain the disease by culling. In Britain in 2001 this took seven months, cost £8bn and led to the culling of six million animals.

If culling is unsuccessful, Mr Quilty believes that at about 30,000 infected head the hard decision would need to be made to pivot to vaccine usage.

Two of Australia’s primary export markets, Japan and South Korea, refuse to take product from countries using vaccines.

Under World Organisation for Animal Health rules, if Australia could stamp out the disease quickly, international trade could recommence within three months. Mr Quilty sees that as ambitious, with a best-case scenario of six months.

The vaccine scenario is far more damaging for Australia. “You would have to prove you have no outbreak using the vaccine for at least 12 months. Then it would be a staggered re-entry into global markets that would take at least four years,” he says.

Mr Quilty also believes the estimated $80bn cost of an FMD crisis is understated, with lockdowns in regional Australia dealing another body blow to tourism.