Dominic Perrottet shakes off NSW election disasters

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has suffered the worst swing against a government since the start of the pandemic at weekend by-elections.

Premier Dominic Perrottet says he takes responsibility for the marked swings against the NSW government. Picture: Flavio Brancaleone

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has suffered the worst swing against an incumbent government since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic following a routing of the Liberal Party vote across four seats and the historic loss of Bega at weekend by-elections.

After NSW Treasurer Matt Kean blamed the federal government’s disastrous two weeks for hampering the by-election campaign, Scott Morrison and Mr Perrottet played down the implications for the looming election, citing local issues and the departure of successful Liberal MPs for the backlash.

But the big swings against the Liberal Party in heartland seats will dismay Coalition strategists who are hoping to make gains in NSW in the federal election expected in May.

The swings also indicate incumbency, which propelled the Northern Territory, Queensland, Tasmanian and Western Australian governments to strong victories earlier in the pandemic, may be becoming a political negative as shortages of rapid antigen tests, isolation rules and supermarket shortages fuel public anger.

The Liberal Party slipped further into minority government with the loss of the seat of Bega for the first time since it was first re-established in 1988.

It also suffered an 18 per cent swing to an independent in Gladys Berejiklian’s former seat of Willoughby, an area once renowned as Liberal heartland.

The Nationals retained the seat of Monaro, albeit with a 6.6 per cent swing to Labor, while Strathfield, formerly held by Labor opposition leader Jodi McKay, was kept by the party with a small swing favouring the government.

Mr Perrottet lauded that result as an example of strong campaigning by Liberal candidate Bridget Sakr; however, some critics said the Labor vote would have been significantly higher if not for independent candidate Elizabeth Farrelly, who polled about 10 per cent of the vote.

Mr Morrison dismissed suggestions on Sunday that the weekend ballot was a harbinger of further pain awaiting the Coalition at the impending federal election, telling reporters the by-elections were largely fought on localised issues and the popularity of outgoing MPs.

The Prime Minister attributed the swing in Bega to the departure of Liberal MP Andrew Constance, who intends to stand as a candidate for the federal seat of Gilmore. Mr Morrison said if anything he could draw comfort from that fact as it “bodes quite well” for his government.

“I’m very pleased that he’s seeking to join our team and running for us in the seat of Gilmore at the next federal election,” Mr Morrison said.

Conceding the result in Bega was “particularly disappointing”, Mr Perrottet said he ultimately bore responsibility for the marked swings against the government. But he denied the results were influenced by dissatisfaction with the Morrison government, as some Liberal colleagues – including Mr Kean – had suggested on Saturday night. “I believe that people across our state distinguish between federal issues and state issues,” Mr Perrottet told reporters. “I look at the results through a prism of what we can do better as a government, not what other governments can do better.”

Explaining the particularly large swing recorded in Willoughby, Mr Perrottet said by-elections posed notoriously difficult challenges for governments, but also that the electorate had been critical of a multibillion-dollar tunnel earmarked for the region.

“We need to make sure, as we are building those major infrastructure projects, that we bring the community with us on the journey,” Mr Perrottet said, citing the tunnel project as an example.

“I certainly heard loud and clear the community concerns in the seat of Willoughby. It’s probably a community as well that won’t receive the tangible benefits (of the project).”

The results in Bega, Strathfield and Monaro were all hailed by NSW Labor as comprehensive victories for the party and votes of confidence in its leader, Chris Minns, who was elevated to the role in June.

At a press conference on Sunday alongside Bega’s Labor candidate, Michael Holland, Mr Minns said the results spoke squarely to Mr Perrottet’s management of the state, namely during the recent outbreak of the Omicron variant across NSW.

“This is a big message to the NSW Premier, a big message to lift his game, to listen to the people of New South Wales to do better at his job,” he said, adding that Mr Perrottet should no longer rely on his “own ideology or hunches”, a reference to recent disagreements with some health officials over Covid-19 mandates.

Opposition home affairs spokeswoman Kristina Keneally said the by-election results were a clear repudiation of Mr Morrison and the “divisive” rhetoric of Defence Minister Peter Dutton on matters relating to China.

“The biggest swings against the Liberals were in areas that were most affected by the bushfires,” she said.

“There are voters who remember a Prime Minister who went to Hawaii while their homes were burning down, and (said) that he doesn’t hold a hose.”

Senator Keneally also pointed to sizeable swings at booths in the seat of Strathfield that are home to higher concentrations of Australians with Chinese heritage. She said those swings could be attributed to Mr Dutton’s inflammatory rhetoric on geopolitical matters.

During question time on Thursday, Mr Dutton claimed the Chinese Communist Party had made an “open and obvious” decision to back Anthony Albanese. Senator Keneally blasted her counterpart for “weaponising” national security, calling it a “desperate” attempt at distraction.

Resources Minister Keith Pitt played down these broader implications for the Morrison government, saying there was a disconnect between state and federal elections.

“The voters know the difference between each level of government and I think it’s just a reflection on where they’re at. And generally, governments lose by-elections,” Mr Pitt said.

“The reality is very straightforward: There will be a federal election in coming weeks that will be fought on federal issues.”