Huge state by-election swings put Morrison on red alert

Self-serving explanations for double-digit by-election swings against the Perrottet government at the weekend ignore a now tangible reality.

The general level of irritation in the community, in some cases palpable anger, isn’t confined to the Commonwealth and the Morrison government.

It is being directed at any incumbent government, at any level. The premiers also are finally now in the firing line.

You don’t need a focus group to reveal that with slow rollouts of vaccines over summer and the impact on parents’ daily lives with school going back, people are beyond frustrated.

And they don’t care whose fault it is.

Sure, there are local issues at play and by-elections generally go against governments, but with pandemic management shifting from a health protection phase to a “living with it” phase, clearly people aren’t happy.

When kids are coming home from school with Covid, their parents having done everything right for the past two years to protect them, it’s easy to see why.

The NSW state by-elections should send a message that what Perrottet is now experiencing is a real-world pox on all houses.

The weekend’s by-elections weren’t kind to NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and his team. Picture: Flavio Brancaleone

Despite Australia’s response to the crisis comparing favourably internationally there appears to be an electoral consensus building that all levels of government have let families down.

Incumbency is now toxic.

Morrison needs no instruction on this.

The latest Newspoll shows that popular support for the federal Coalition remains at a perilously low 34 per cent.

It may come as a relief that it wasn’t worse considering the prime minister endured arguably the worst parliamentary week of his career last week. But it also shows that irrespective of the issues that dominated the parliament, the defining issue for most people is the ongoing management of this pandemic.

It begs the question as to when the political recovery for the Morrison government will begin.

And will the dismantling of Anthony Albanese be enough?

An election is looming and time is running out for the government to present its case for re-election based on economic management, its national security credentials, its handling of the pandemic and the demonisation of the opposition.

If there is any federal implication to be derived from the by-election results, it is a question of this; how entrenched is the broader brand damage for the Liberal party in NSW, aided by Perrottet’s unpopular pandemic response, in a state that Morrison needs to pick up seats to win?

The only demonstrable movement in the latest Newspoll appears to be at the extremes, which proves that this election perhaps more than others will be dependent on how they appeal to a broader and increasingly fractured constituency.

The standout movement in the latest Newspoll is the collapse in the Greens vote to 8 per cent. The minor left-wing party has a hardcore base of between 7-8 per cent, with 2-3 per cent above that representing a softer Greens constituency.

When Labor is doing badly, this cohort sticks with the Greens. When the Greens start behaving like maniacs, such as campaigning for hung parliament, this group tends to bleed back to Labor.

So how does this happen at the same time Albanese’s own numbers go backwards?

Hardcore Greens voters mark him down in polls when he tries to appeal to the centre, leading to a fall in his satisfaction levels. And this can be easily misread.

The churn among the disaffected is a problem for both major parties.

The key finding from the latest Newspoll is that the middle ground is not yet shifting for Morrison or the Coalition. And this is where the election is won or lost.