Secret submarine scandal: Collins lined up for lite-on refit

The Albanese government is considering a secret, scaled-back upgrade plan for the Collins-class submarines from next year, risking a capability gap ahead of the arrival of nuclear submarines.

Collins-class submarines HMAS Collins, HMAS Farncomb, HMAS Dechaineux and HMAS Sheean, sailing in formation while transiting through Cockburn Sound, Western Australia. Picture: Royal Australian Navy

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A $5bn plan to extend the lives of the navy’s Collins-class ­submarines is in disarray as the government-owned shipbuilder ASC warns it won’t be ready to fully upgrade the first boat, raising the prospect of a capability gap before the arrival of the nation’s nuclear-powered subs.

The Australian can reveal the Albanese government is now ­considering a scaled-back “life-of-type extension” for the first overhaul from next year, which won’t deliver the extra 10 years of operational life the boat needs.

The proposed “LOTE lite” upgrade plan has been kept secret by Labor as it prepares for a khaki-tinged election campaign, which will throw a spotlight on its management of the defence portfolio.

Multiple sources said the ­revised upgrade scope would leave the first boat in line, the 27-year-old HMAS Farncomb, with its main motor, diesel engines and generators in place, rather than having installed new ones as ­planned. Failure to replace the critical systems would undermine the boat’s reliability and shorten its planned lifespan, degrading the ­submarine force ahead of the transition to nuclear boats in the 2030s and 2040s.

The prospect of the scaled-back upgrade comes amid growing concerns over the Trump administration’s commitment to AUKUS, and fears the navy is ill-equipped to protect Australia from China’s increasingly assertive bluewater fleet following the recent circumnavigation of ­Australia by ­advanced PLA-Navy warships.

The Chief of the Navy, Mark Hammond, told a Senate estimates hearing last month the upgrade plan for HMAS Farncomb was “unchanged at the moment”.

Australia’s Chief of Navy, Vice Admiral Mark Hammond. Picture: David Gray / AFP

But sources close to the LOTE program, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the navy’s submarine capabilities, said design and ­implementation studies had ­revealed ASC was highly unlikely to be ready to complete the full scope of works within the mandated two-year time frame.

“It’s not just a case of pulling out the current motor and putting a new motor in,” one source said.

“Everything needs to be ­designed because it’s a completely different shape, completely different technology. The design work just hasn’t been done.”

The source blamed ASC ­“incompetence” for the failure and warned of cascading ramifications for the program.

“These things take years to plan, years to do the design ­drawings, and they’ve basically missed the boat. And the real fear is if they’ve missed the boat for 2026, they’re just as likely to miss the boat for 2028 (when the second Collins-class submarine is due to enter the LOTE program).”

Another source said some ASC suppliers had contributed to the immaturity of the LOTE ­designs, and that Defence had slowed the process with late changes to system requirements.

The source said ASC was ­examining how much of the planned upgrade it would be able to complete within the two-year window.

The Australian sought a response from Defence Minister Richard Marles, but none was provided. Instead, a government spokeswoman blamed the ­Coalition for the problems facing the Collins fleet. “Over almost a decade in ­government, the ­Coalition ripped money out of the sustainment of the Collins class submarines and left Australia with the risk of a ­significant gap in respect of our submarine capability,” she said.

“The Albanese government restored this funding cut and is ­investing in priority capability ­enhancements and sustainment for the Collins class to ensure it ­remains a potent and credible platform for the Australian ­Defence Force.”

HMAS Farncomb at the dock at ASC’s Osborne yard in Adelaide. Picture: Kelly Barnes

An ASC spokesperson said its LOTE design and procurement work was progressing in co-­operation with navy and Defence.

The uncertainty over the LOTE program follows a high-level warning to the government, revealed by The Australian last year, over ASC’s ability to deliver the complex upgrades.

Former US navy deputy assistant secretary Gloria Valdez told the government in her classified report that the scale of the ­planned life extensions had never been attempted, and expressed concern that ASC lacked the ­design and engineering experience to undertake the work.

Former Defence official ­Michael Shoebridge said it would be a mistake to lay all the blame on ASC, arguing Defence was ­responsible for managing the Collins and scoping the LOTE works. “There’s a lot of blame to go around, but the root cause is the submarines are too old,” the Strategic Analysis Australia ­director said.

“They’re trying to make a new submarine out of the old submarine, and it turns out that is too complex and risky. So, we’re looking at a submarine capability gap, just like we’re looking at a surface ship capability gap with the fragile Anzac-class frigates.”

Mr Shoebridge said the implications for the navy of a weakened submarine fleet were immense. “It means we will not have submarines able to be deployed if the government needs to deploy them, and it means doing things like surveillance of our ­exclusive economic zone and the wider region will become more and more difficult,” he said.

“If we think the PLA Navy warships that circumnavigated Australia were badly surveilled this time, the way the navy has been mismanaged with its surface and submarine fleets means it will get weaker over this next decade.”

Mr Marles acknowledged at The Australian’s Defending Australia summit in Adelaide this month that extending the Collins lifespans was a critical part of the AUKUS plan to switch to ­nuclear-powered submarines.

He conceded the upgrades would be “technologically challenging” and said it was “completely fair” to question their viability. But he said he believed the upgrades would be a success. “Is it doable?” he said. “I do think it’s ­doable. I think we’re going to be really smart and really clever in the way in which we do it.”

Australian Submarine Agency chief, Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, with South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas, Defence Minister Richard Marles and opposition defence spokesman Andrew Hastie, at the Defending Australia summit in Adelaide. Picture: Brett Hartwig

The government maintains the Collins boats are the world’s most capable diesel-electric submarines, but there have been growing questions over their reliability. The Australian revealed last November that only one of the six boats was operational, amid maintenance delays, ­corrosion problems and long-running industrial action at ASC.

The government listed the Collins as a “project of concern” the following month, triggering closer ministerial oversight of the maintenance schedule and the LOTE plans.

Admiral Hammond told Senate estimates that efforts had been made to try to get the sustainment schedule back on track, but it was “too early to say” how long it would take to implement. “At this stage, our intention is still to conduct a life-of-type extension on all six submarines commencing with Farncomb in mid-2026,” Admiral Hammond said. “But we’ve got to work through the context of the sustainment system as it is today and provide that advice to government.”

The navy and the Albanese government came under fire last month after it emerged they only found out about a live weapons drill by three Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea from a warning relayed by a Virgin pilot 30 minutes after the exercise window opened. The New Zealand ­Defence Force, which the navy was relying on to monitor the ships, provided a warning 50 minutes later.

Donald Trump’s nominee for head of policy at the Pentagon, Elbridge Colby, cast fresh doubt over the administration’s commitment to AUKUS this month, warning that the US faced “a very difficult problem” in meeting its pledge to supply three Virginia-class boats to Australia from the early 2030s due to slower-than-expected submarine production.

Multiple reports to the US Congress have said the country’s submarine industry continues to build just one Virginia-class boat a year – well under the 2.3 a year needed for the US to meet its own needs and also fulfil its commitment to Australia. The report said the US Navy’s “priority” program to build new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines was behind schedule and could further delay Virginia-class production.

Britain’s submarine industry is also facing serious problems that could throw out the schedule of the UK-supported construction of new AUKUS-class subs in ­Adelaide, the first of which the government hopes will be ­delivered in the early 2040s.