Red alert for British submarines program a blow for AUKUS

A Rolls-Royce program set to supply reactor cores for Australia’s nuclear submarines has been branded as ‘unachievable’ in a blow to the nation’s AUKUS ambitions.

An artist’s impression of the future AUKUS-class nuclear-powered submarine. Picture: BAE Systems

A Rolls-Royce program set to supply reactor cores for Australia’s nuclear submarines has been branded as “unachievable” in a fresh blow to the nation’s AUKUS ambitions.

Britain’s Infrastructure and Projects Authority has slapped the reactor program with its lowest “red” rating for the third year in a row, warning of “major ­issues” that “do not appear to be manageable or resolvable”.

“Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable,” the major projects watchdog said in a new report.

The ratings reflect long-running difficulties inside Britain’s nuclear submarine program, and come as sluggish submarine production in the US casts doubt on America’s commitment to supply three to five Virginia-class boats to Australia from the early 2030s.

The reactor program is critical to the production of Britain’s Dreadnought ballistic missile submarines and the UK and Australia’s future AUKUS boats. The report gave Britain’s Dreadnought, Astute and AUKUS submarine programs an “amber” rating, warning for all three that “significant issues already exist”.

The Albanese government has pledged about $4.8bn to boost reactor production at the Rolls-Royce facility in Derby and a similar amount to strengthen the US submarine industry, but it’s unclear how big an impact the funding will have.

Strategic Analysis Australia director Michael Shoebridge said the UK was AUKUS’s “weakest link”. “They’ve been investing into its capacity for years, for no obvious improvement,” he said.

“It’s a similar story for US investment in their industrial base. The problem for the UK, though, is whether it’s completing their Astutes, constructing the new Dreadnoughts or building the reactors that go into their new submarines – it’s all troubled. It’s just the reactor element is the most troubled.”

The so-called “optimal pathway” for AUKUS has the first of the new submarine class being delivered for the UK in the late 2030s, and the first Australian-built boat in the early 2040s.

But Mr Shoebridge warned: “It can only be designed and delivered if the UK has the capacity to do that, and this independent report from the UK government monitoring agency puts that into doubt.” A government spokeswoman said Australia was confident the UK would play its part in delivering the AUKUS program.

Defence Minister Richard Marles, right, with former British defence secretary Grant Shapps at Rolls-Royce’s nuclear reactor manufacturing site in Derby in 2023. Picture: Nigel Howard

“Rolls-Royce will be delivering reactor cores for the Australian AUKUS program; a decision made to leverage the UK’s decades of experience in manufacturing nuclear reactors,” she said.

She said the UK was “making significant investments to uplift its defence nuclear enterprise and grow the required workforce”.

Australia’s submarine funding for the UK would help Rolls-Royce meet the requirements of Australia’s AUKUS program and contribute to the boat’s design costs, the spokeswoman said.

Defence Minister Richard Marles made an $800m downpayment on Australia’s support for the US submarine industry last weekend during a whirlwind vision to Washington, where he secured a strong statement of support for AUKUS from new US counterpart Pete Hegseth.

“The President is very aware (and) supportive of AUKUS,” Mr Hegseth said. “(He) recognises the importance of the defence industrial base.”

But a recent US Congressional Budget Office report confirmed the country’s submarine industry continues to build just one ­Virginia-class boat a year – well under the 2.3 needed for the US to meet its own needs and also fulfil its commitment to Australia.

The report said the US Navy’s “priority” program to build new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines was behind schedule and could further delay Virginia-class production.