Peter Dutton’s secret plan to fast-track nuclear submarines

Defence was working on a pre-election plan to purchase two Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US by 2030.

A Virginia-class attack submarine.

Defence was working on a plan before the election to purchase two Virginia-class nuclear-­powered submarines from the US by 2030 – at least a decade before their scheduled arrival if they were built in Australia.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who was defence minister three weeks ago, says he came to the view that the American submarine was the best option for Australia, and believes the US government would sell Australia the boats off its Connecticut production line.

The disclosure is the first ­concrete insight into the work of Defence’s high-level nuclear submarine taskforce, led by navy Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead.

It’s understood preliminary discussions on the option were held with the US government, which would also have to supply submariners to serve on the vessels to train Australian personnel.

The plan would, if successful, eliminate a feared capability gap following the retirement of the Collins-class submarines from 2038. Writing in the The Australian, Mr Dutton says the option is “laid out” for new Defence Minister Richard Marles, and makes an interim “Son of Collins” submarine “unfeasible”.

If it went ahead with the option, the Coalition would have pledged to build a further eight boats in Adelaide, as originally envisaged, lifting the planned acquisition to a total of 10 nuclear-powered submarines.

Mr Dutton, who hinted before the election of a plan to fast-track the nuclear-powered submarine program, says it “became obvious” to him that Australia should opt for the US Virginia-class boats under the trilateral AUKUS partnership with the US and UK.

The Virginia-class attack submarine USS California.

The prospect of securing two Virginias within the next eight years was key to Mr Dutton’s preference for the US design.

“I believed it possible to negotiate with the Americans to ­acquire, say, the first two submarines off the production line out of Connecticut,” he writes.

“This wouldn’t mean waiting until 2038 for the first submarine to be built here in Australia. We would have our first two subs this decade. I had formed a judgment the Americans would have facilitated exactly that.”

Mr Dutton says the Albanese government should “continue to encourage the Americans to base some of their Virginia class subs here in our waters”.

“Again, I believe this is achievable and should be pursued vigorously,” he says.

Unlike Britain’s Astute-class submarine, the Virginia has vertical missile-launch tubes, and is a “mature design”, with 22 completed and another 44 on order.

As production of the Astute is due to end in the UK after seven submarines, Mr Dutton says ­selecting a British boat would mean signing on to a “first-in-class design”, with inevitable time and cost blowouts.

Mr Dutton says Australia could purchase more Hunter-class frigates or other British made hardware to “honour and respect” the UK’s role in the AUKUS partnership.

Mr Marles told The Australian this week that plugging the anticipated submarine capability gap was his most urgent priority. He said he was “completely open-minded” about the potential options, declaring it was too early to be drawn on whether an interim “Son of Collins” or some other capability could plug the gap.

Peter Dutton says it ‘became obvious’ to him that Australia should opt for the US Virginia-class boats under the trilateral AUKUS partnership with the US and UK. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen

Mr Dutton says more Collins boats would be “easily detectable and inoperable” by the time they get in the water, and “Australia doesn’t have the construction workforce, let alone the crew capability to run three classes of submarines”.

“I am speaking out on this topic because Labor is on the cusp of making a very dangerous decision which would clearly be against our national security interests,” Mr Dutton writes.

Vice-Admiral Mead’s taskforce is midway through its 18-month study to determine how Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

The process, due for completion in about March next year, will identify a preferred design, develop plans for building and crewing the submarines, and examine the regulatory and infrastructure requirements for basing nuclear submarines in Australia.

Mr Dutton told the ABC’s Insiders program in March that the anticipated 2040 timeline for the arrival of the first nuclear submarine could be brought forward, with details on design and construction to be announced “within a couple of months”. He later told Sky News he believed the first subs could be acquired “much sooner” than expected, avoiding the need for an interim conventionally powered boat.

Mr Marles told Nine Newspapers this week that the projected submarine delivery schedule under the Coalition was “more likely to be in the mid-2040s”.

Mr Dutton says Australia needs nuclear-powered because “diesel-electric submarines would not be able to compete against the Chinese in the South China Sea beyond 2035”. His successor said the Albanese government was “completely committed to doing what is required” to deliver eight nuclear submarines, including providing the necessary funding.

“We have got to make this work,” Mr Marles told The Australian.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute says building eight nuclear boats in Australia could cost $117bn to $171bn, with extra regulatory and infrastructure costs potentially adding tens of billions of dollars to the bill.