AUKUS sceptic Turnbull discussed pact’s defects with Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby

AUKUS critic Malcolm Turnbull discussed the pact’s challenges, including the capabilities of the US Navy, before Elbridge Colby was charged with leading a vital review into the partnership’s future.

Malcolm Turnbull, left, and Elbridge Colby share a ‘realistic’ view of AUKUS.

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Malcolm Turnbull held substantial conversations with Elbridge Colby about the AUKUS agreement – including its defects and challenges – before the Pentagon policy chief was charged with leading a vital review into the future of the security partnership.

The engagement between the former prime minister and Mr Colby predates the confirmation of Mr Colby in March as the US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy, where he serves as the key intellectual force behind the Pentagon’s application of Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda in the world – including the Indo-Pacific.

Mr Turnbull has been a sustained critic of AUKUS, arguing that the deal will not work for Australia, and he shares with Mr Colby a range of concerns and criticisms about the agreement.

The Australian can reveal the former prime minister has engaged with Mr Colby for more than three years on a range of issues including the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the US and the UK under which Canberra is hoping to acquire three Virginia-class submarines from America.

The two men know each other well and in March 2024 an opinion piece written by Mr Turnbull – warning that Australia faced the prospect of having no submarine capability for a decade because of the AUKUS deal – was reposted by Mr Colby.

Responding to the article, Mr Colby said “America cannot prudently reduce the number of its most important asset for a Western Pacific fight, precisely in the period when such a war seems increasingly plausible”.

Discussions between the two men in recent years are understood to have canvassed a range of topics about which Mr Turnbull has spoken in recent weeks – including the need for Australia to reclaim greater sovereignty and independence in world affairs by standing more firmly on its own two feet.

The US is becoming increasingly concerned that Australian defence spending – at about 2 per cent of GDP – is insufficient to fund the AUKUS agreement for the purchase of Virginia-class submarines without hollowing out other defence capabilities needed for Australia to contribute effectively to stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Another key concern held by both men relates to the US production rate for Virginia-class submarines falling behind what is required for Washington to meet both its own needs and those of Australia.

This is critical because, under the enabling AUKUS legislation, the US President cannot authorise the sale of submarines to Australia unless he can certify to congress that it will not degrade the capabilities of the US Navy.

Delivering the Jeff Bleich Centre Distinguished Lecture in late June, Mr Turnbull sketched out these points in detail.

And he mentioned Mr Colby by name.

“These are really the best, the most important assets in their fleet … Their current rate of production is, according to the navy, (running at an) average of 1.1 a year. It’s been between 1.1 and 1.2 for quite a while, it needs to be well over two to be able to meet the US Navy’s needs and our needs,” Mr Turnbull said.

“This is the point that has been of great concern to many people in Washington, including the Under Secretary for Defence, ‘Bridge’ Colby, who is undertaking a review of AUKUS at the moment.

“He has simply made the point, ‘if these are the most valuable assets in our navy … if we are already short of them and if we are producing half as many of them as we need to replace retirements, how can we possibly transfer any of these vital assets to another country, no matter how friendly and fond we may be of that nation?’.”

As prime minister, Mr Turnbull was the key champion of a submarine deal with France under which Naval Group would design and build 12 conventionally powered Attack-class submarines for the Australian Navy.

But the arrangement was superseded by the AUKUS agreement to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, with Mr Turnbull warning in recent weeks that the current plan would “considerably” reduce Australian sovereignty at the same time Washington is “beginning to become less reliable”.

In a piece published in Foreign Affairs in June, Mr Turnbull argued that America’s allies now needed to “do more to defend themselves” and increase their “sovereign autonomy” – meaning their ability to operate without the United States.

He argued that embracing this position would be appreciated and respected by the Trump administration, citing a recent interview by Vice-President JD Vance in which he praised French leader Charles de Gaulle, who, “despite protests from Washington in the 1960s, ensured that France, unlike the United Kingdom, retained complete sovereignty over all its military capabilities”.

“AUKUS may be a cautionary tale for other allies,” Mr Turnbull said. “Sovereignty and autonomy are more important than ever. Compromise them at your peril.”

While Mr Turnbull has had ongoing discussions with Mr Colby, he has not met with him since he was confirmed as the US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy or charged with leading the Pentagon review of the AUKUS framework.