Needs of the Nation survey: Fears of armed conflict with China double in a decade

Most Australians expect we’ll face war with China within 20 years. But will Uncle Sam race to our rescue?

Russian and Chinese sailors taking part in the opening ceremony of a joint maritime exercises at a port in Zhanjiang in China's southern Guangdong province in July 2024. Picture: Russian Defence Ministry

Public fears of war with China have doubled in the past decade, but fewer Australians believe the US will rush to our aid.

The Australian’s Needs of the Nation survey shows 59 per cent of Australians think military conflict with China is likely in the next 20 years, with 18 per cent fearing it is “very likely’’.

In a comparable survey in 2014, only 30 per cent of Australians ­believed conflict with China was likely and just 6 per cent ­regarded war as “very likely’’ within the next 20 years.

The 2024 polling shows China has overtaken Indonesia as the greatest threat. The proportion of Australians who say war with ­Indonesia is likely has fallen from 47 per cent in 2014 to 29 per cent this year.

Despite concern about an ­attack from China, most Australians think a terror attack is a far bigger threat to national security. Polling by The Growth Distillery this year shows that 76 per cent of Australians expect a terror attack within the next 20 years – down slightly from 79 per cent in a 2014 Newspoll survey.

This year’s polling was commissioned for The Australian’s 60th anniversary to test how attitudes have changed since 2014.

Confidence in Australia’s ­ability to defend itself against an attack has grown over the past decade, although younger Australians are more sure than those aged over 50. The 2024 polling shows 37 per cent of people believe Australia would be able to defend itself without help, if attacked by another country. In 2014, only 25 per cent believed so.

Confidence in the US providing support has waned, with only 40 per cent of Australians agreeing it is “very likely’’ America would provide military assistance if ­Australia was attacked. In 2014, 68 per cent thought it “very likely’’ Australia could count on US military support.

Asked if American military ­assistance would be “somewhat likely’’, 44 per cent agreed in 2024, compared to 22 per cent in 2014. Overall, 84 per cent of Australians in 2024 have faith the US would provide military backing if Australia was attacked, down from 90 per cent in 2014.

Rory Medcalf, who heads the National Security College at the Australian National University, said many Australians were aware of China’s cyber threats, foreign interference and economic coercion. He said Indonesia had not been a threat for decades.

“China’s military has modernised massively over the past 10 or 20 years,’’ he said. “China is using force to very ­openly bully countries like The Philippines, to assert itself against Taiwan and Japan. It’s quite plausible Australia could find itself in a military confrontation with China.’’

‘China is using force to very openly bully countries,’ says Rory Medcalf, who heads the National Security College at the Australian National University.

Professor Medcalf said the loss of confidence in American military support could be a result of “people looking at the dysfunction in the United States that we’re seeing every day’’.

“But in aggregate, the vast ­majority of Australians still believe that our US ally would help us if we were under military threat,’’ he said. “That’s a realistic point of view. If anything, in the last five to 10 years we’ve seen America become much more competitive against China and we’ve seen a much greater willingness, both from the Trump and the Biden ­administrations, to take a stand.”