China invasion forecasts questionable, says Scott Morrison

Scott Morrison says US military timelines about when China might invade Taiwan should be taken ‘with a grain of salt’ and that “the best outcome is there is no such conflict”.

Scott Morrison meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G20 in Osaka, Japan, in 2019. Picture: Adam Taylor / PMO

Scott Morrison says US military timelines about when China might invade Taiwan should be taken “with a grain of salt” as Xi Jinping increasingly encounters a region that is “resisting” Chinese hegemony.

In an exclusive interview, the former prime minister said Australia’s increased defence spending and alignment with other countries were part of an effort to create an “enduring balance in the region” aimed at deterring war in the Taiwan Strait.

“We are most at risk by having an unstable region where there is no effective counterbalance which changes the Chinese calculus,” Mr Morrison told Sky News presenter Sharri Markson.

He said “the rise of China militarily is very true” but there were abundant reasons for Beijing to beware of over-­estimating its “on paper” capabilities.

“I mean the Russians thought they could take Kyiv in two days, right? So you take with a grain of salt a bit, you know, the many assessments that are given. These are all paper assessments. What someone can do, potentially, is not what they would do.”

The comments came amid complaints this week by China’s President that the US and its allies had “implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression” against China, and as his Foreign Minister warned of “catastrophic consequences” unless Washington and its partners adjusted their behaviour.

Mr Morrison said it was crucial countries in the region had demonstrated over the past five years that there were consequences for Beijing’s assertive behaviour. Citing US President Joe Biden’s top Indo-Pacific adviser Kurt Campbell, he said Mr Xi had been “taking the West’s measure” even before he became China’s leader in 2012: “He was seeing … how far they could go. And when he became the leader, he really did push it.”

Mr Morrison said that Mr Xi’s goal was “hegemony” in the region and that previously China found other countries were “not resisting”.

“Now, thankfully, there’s quite a bit of pushback to that.”

There has been a series of warnings by current and recently retired US military officials that Beijing might be readying to attack Taiwan as early as 2025.

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Tuesday restated that Beijing wanted to take control of Taiwan by peaceful means, but “reserves the right to take all necessary measures”.

Mr Morrison noted that taking control of Taiwan was a longstanding Communist Party goal often mobilised by Beijing’s propaganda machine to distract attention from other domestic problems.

“There is a view which says that the sabre rattling that goes on over Taiwan is as much about consolidating Chinese nationalism in the face of the declining economy,” he said.

Mr Morrison declined to comment on whether the ANZUS treaty would compel Australia’s involvement in any Taiwan-­related military conflict.

“I think speculation on these things is unhelpful. That’s a matter for the government,” he said.

“But … the idea of conflict in the Taiwan Strait … not having some direct negative consequences for Australia’s national interests is ridiculous.”

Mr Morrison was speaking the week before the Albanese government reveals which model of nuclear-powered submarine it has chosen under the AUKUS security partnership.

He said Australia’s increased military capabilities were important to contribute towards a balance of power to check potential Chinese aggression. He also praised Japan’s “consistency and friendship” and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts leading India to “step in and step up”.

“Being prepared isn’t just having your own capability. It’s having the interlocking alignments and alliances that actually provide the counterbalance to the threat. See, the best outcome is there is no such conflict.”