AUKUS nuclear plan torpedoes Collins subs upgrade

Richard Marles has warned Australia’s Collins-class submarine capability will become questionable by the mid-2030s, casting doubt on the boats’ planned $6bn-$10bn life extension.

Defence Minister Richard Marles. Picture: Getty Images

Richard Marles has warned Australia’s Collins-class submarine capability will become questionable by the mid-2030s, casting doubt on the boats’ planned $6bn-$10bn life extension as the government looks to acquire US-built nuclear subs from early next decade.

The warning came as Anthony Albanese refused to disclose how much his government’s submarine plan would cost, but warned Defence spending was likely to rise beyond 2 per cent of GDP.

While South Australia is set to wait for at least a decade before work commences on a new AUKUS class of submarines, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said her home state would receive “an enormous uplift” in its industrial capability from the construction effort.

With analysts warning of a potential war between China and the US this decade, there are fears Australia‘s US-made Virginia-class boats and next-generation AUKUS subs will arrive too late to contribute to such a conflict.

The Defence Minister sought to reassure Australians the nation’s six Collins-class boats were “really capable submarines”, and would remain a “potent” deterrent for at least a decade.

“But the question is whether or not it will be the same capability in the mid-2030s, which is why we‘ve got to be thinking about that right now,” Mr Marles said.

His comments follow those of former defence minister Peter Dutton, who warned last year a “son of Collins” diesel-electric submarine would be “easily detectable and inoperable” by the time they got in the water.

The Collins “life-of-type extension” program is budgeted to cost at least $6bn, but defence industry sources suggest the work could cost up to $10bn.

The upgrades will place significant demand on the nation’s limited shipbuilding workforce as the AUKUS nuclear submarine program gathers pace.

Royal Australian Navy Collins-class submarine HMAS Rankin. Picture: Getty Images

Leaked reports suggest Australia’s “optimal pathway” to acquire nuclear submarines will begin with the forward-deployment of US subs in Australia from 2027, followed by the acquisition of three to five Virginia-class subs in the 2030s, and a joint program to build new AUKUS boats for delivery the late 2030s or early 2040s.

Defence industry sources said if the expected US Virginia-class boats became available in the early 2030s, it might be unnecessary to extend the life of all six Collins boats.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace senior fellow Ashley Townshend said it was still unclear where the US would find the three to five Virginia-class subs to provide to Australia, because “they’re already below their required submarine numbers”.

But he said if Australia invested billions of dollars into the trilateral submarine industrial base, including building another shipyard in Australia, “I guess it will provide sufficient capacity for the US to allow Australia to use, under some kind of arrangement, three to five Virginias in the early 2030s”.

Speaking in India on Friday, the Prime Minister said his government would do “what is necessary” to fund Australia’s multistage submarine plan, when the nation is also looking to acquire other advanced military technologies.

South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas said he wanted a guarantee that the initial “off the shelf” purchase of US submarines would not erode the “cast-iron” commitment to create a sovereign nuclear sub building capacity in Australia.

But Senator Wong sought to play down concerns over delays in building the next-generation sub in Adelaide, saying the program would be “enormously beneficial for South Australians”.

Additional reporting: Joe Kelly