ADF’s military incompetence, counter-drone failings exposed

The Albanese government’s decision not to send a naval ship to the Red Sea is a devastating indictment of our military incompetence and perhaps a turning point in modern Australian history.

Not for decades have we been so radically unprepared militarily, and incapable, as we are now.

There is one overriding reason we can’t send a ship. None of the 10 operational surface fleet vessels we allegedly have available (seven Anzac frigates currently operational and three air warfare destroyers) has any counter-drone defence capabilities.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing drones at ships. We could shoot these drones down with our fabulously expensive anti-ship missiles, each of them vastly more expensive than drones, but very soon, say in a day and a half, an Anzac frigate would run out of such missiles and have to sail all the way back to Australia to replenish. The Houthis have armed drones. The Australian Defence Force does not have in its entire order of battle one single armed drone.

The Ukrainians have sunk Russian capital warships with drones. The ADF, operating on its rolling 10-year masterful inactivity plan, still has no armed drone of its own, nor are its ships equipped with counter-drone systems. We won’t get a serious government response to the surface fleet review, which was the only naval consequence of the Defence Strategic Review, probably until the budget next May, two years after the Albanese government was elected.

Under current plans, which the government shows no sign of changing, we don’t get a new surface combat ship for another decade, when the troubled Hunter frigate program allegedly will deliver its first ship. And guess what? The Hunters don’t have counter-drone capabilities either.

The other reason we can’t send a ship is we don’t have enough crew. One of our notional eight Anzacs is more or less permanently mothballed. The ADF has been losing personnel at more than 10 per cent a year and radically underperforming in recruitment. We couldn’t sustain even a one-ship deployment in the Red Sea indefinitely.

As former army chief Peter Leahy recently argued, we are now substantially weaker in defence than we were when Labor was elected, yet it promised to end years of inaction and spend whatever it took to make us capable of defending ourselves.

This is now a sick joke.

Prime Minister Albanese was scheduled overnight to deliver to the Lowy Institute the single most boring foreign policy speech ever written. It mentions no specific defence initiative, beyond the AUKUS submarines, because, in fact, apart from the airy symbolism of AUKUS, which won’t deliver, or cost, anything for years, there is no defence initiative.

We get precious little actual firepower for the $52bn a year we spend on defence. Imagine what the Houthis would deliver if they had our defence budget. And if we can’t handle the Houthis, what effect are we ever likely to have on the Chinese military?

Less than zero, I would say.

But even if the government could deploy a ship, would it?

Look at its recent actions. It has deserted Israel, opposed the US and contradicted Britain by supporting a notoriously one-sided resolution at the UN that demanded from Israel an immediate ceasefire without even naming Hamas or its terrorist atrocities. Not a single senior Australian minister has been to Israel to express solidarity in its war with Hamas.

We’ve gone mute on China, notably not proactively saying a word about the grotesque show trial of pro-democracy media proprietor Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong. Despite the eye-watering frequent-flyer miles this government racks up, our new policy is to be a small bundle of nothingness, hiding from the world and its disputes, hoping it won’t notice us.

Our defence force can’t do much in the way of disaster relief allegedly because it’s busy preparing for high-end military conflict. But it can’t participate in military conflict against any enemy that can purchase a drone from Bunnings.

What an utter shambles this government has produced in defence. Don’t think the Americans haven’t noticed.