Coronavirus: curve flattens but we’re not out of woods

Australia has recorded some of its lowest daily increases in positive coronavirus cases over Easter.

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The nation has recorded some of its lowest day-to-day increases in positive coronavirus cases over the Easter weekend but, while it is a promising sign that our curve is stabilising, health experts warn we are “not yet out of the woods”.

There were only 25 new cases reported nationally on Sunday, which was one of the lowest daily increases since mid-March, but there was also a significant ­reduction in testing levels due to the holiday weekend.

In NSW, where just seven ­additional cases were reported on Sunday morning, the health ­department warned people to temper their enthusiasm.

“While this appears promising news, it should be noted there was a decrease in testing on Easter ­Saturday with just 840 tests, ­compared to 3515 in the previous day,” NSW Health said.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said although it was “pleasing” the number of new cases each day was stabilising, people needed to continue to heed social-distancing measures as the worst was “yet to hit us”.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Annaliese van Diemen of Victoria, where just three additional cases were reported on Sunday, said Australia was not yet “out of the woods” and this was not the time to become complacent.

Despite the lower level of testing over the weekend, health ­experts were describing the situation as a “success story” and were questioning the need for some of the ­nation’s tougher social-­distancing measures.

Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Canberra Hospital, said despite the reduced testing, the curve was starting to flatten.

“We’ve been very successful; we are one of the world’s success stories,” Professor Collignon said.

“So far, along with South Korea, Iceland and a few others, we have ­actually turned the curve around. We’re doing lots of testing and there isn’t much evidence of community transmission.”

While Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said on Sunday it would be “very dangerous and unrealistic” to remove social-distancing ­restrictions too soon, Professor Collignon said some measures in NSW and Victoria were “excessive” and may cause resentment in the community, jeopardising the public’s continued co-operation as winter draws on.

People in NSW and Victoria are living under some of Australia’s toughest lockdowns and face fines of up to $11,000 if they break the rules.

Professor Collignon said such tough public health orders were a “step too far” and “psychologically and socially impossible to maintain for six months”. “There is no evidence that those extra measures have made any difference, yet they have caused a whole lot more hardship to livelihoods, ­social harmony and people’s psyche,” Professor Collignon said.

“The discrepancies between states are also problematic. We’re in for the long haul with this and so if we police things, they have to be things everybody understands as sensible. We’ve got to be very careful we don’t overdo the restrictions. We’ve got to temper it with the amount of infection we have evidence for as transmitting in the community.”

Sanjaya Senanayake, professor of infectious diseases at the Australian National University, said he expected authorities might be tempted to ease some shutdown restrictions as the curve flattened to improve the economy and ­establish if the reduced number of cases was real or a “transient blip”.

“The reality is that although we would like zero cases, I don’t think there are going to be no cases,” he said. “There is no manual for this. We will just have to reassess our strategy every few days.”

West Australian Premier Mark McGowan said on Sunday some of the state’s restrictions could be lifted as early as next month.

“There are going to be restrictions in place for at least for six months in one form or another and we are not going to loosen things that will make the situation worse,” Mr McGowan said.

“As I’ve said before, I’d much rather put in strong borders than close down more businesses.”