Aussies distrust Xi, fear conflict with China: Lowy poll

Australians back the government’s stabilisation of relations with Beijing but are deeply distrustful of China and its leadership.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets China’s President Xi Jinping in a bilateral meeting during the 2022 G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. Picture: AAP

Australians back the Albanese government’s stabilisation of relations with Beijing but are deeply distrustful of China and its leadership, with most believing the Asian power will pose a military threat to Australia in coming years.

The latest Lowy Institute Poll reveals Australians feel safer, have confidence in the nation’s US alliance and remain optimistic about the our economic performance.

But nearly two-thirds are anxious over the prospect of a war between the US and China – almost twice as many as two years ago – and a clear majority is opposed to sending Australian military personnel to fight in a conflict over Taiwan.

The long-running poll, now in its 19th year, shows an overwhelming proportion of Australians (83 per cent) back Anthony Albanese’s handling of foreign policy.

Just 46 per cent of respondents backed Scott Morrison’s foreign policy record, with 52 per cent ­saying the former prime minister did a “poor job” at international ­diplomacy.

Ahead of a likely prime ministerial trip to Beijing later this year, a majority of respondents (56 per cent) said the resumption of high-level contact with China was positive for Australia’s interests.

Nearly two-thirds expressed optimism at the nation’s economic outlook, while the proportion who felt “safe” or “very safe” rose 10 points to 63 per cent.

Fear remains a defining feature of Australia’s relationship with China, with 52 per cent seeing it as a security threat, and three-­quarters believing the country will pose a military threat to Australia within the next two decades.

More than half (56 per cent) said Australia should remain neutral in the event of a military conflict between the US and China.

Just 11 per cent of respondents expressed confidence in President Xi Jinping to do the right thing in the world; only 15 per cent trusted China to act responsibly.

“After three years of global turmoil, Australians have caught their breath,” Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove said. “But there has been no return to factory settings. The shocks of recent years broke many underlying assumptions about the world.”

Dr Fullilove said Australia’s perceptions of China had “levelled out” but the nation’s level of warmth towards its biggest trading partner remained “strikingly low”.

The findings come amid repeated government warnings over China’s unprecedented military build-up, which has underpinned Australia’s pursuit of nuclear submarines and moves to acquire long-range strike capabilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins tied as Australians’ most trusted world leaders, with 72 per cent of respondents expressing confidence in them to do the right thing.

Emmanuel Macron was also rated highly, with 64 per cent expressing confidence in him – the same rating as for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Respondents were less satisfied with Joe Biden, amid ongoing concerns on his age and mental faculties, but a clear majority of 59 per cent expressed confidence he would do the right thing in world affairs.

The only leaders less-trusted by Australians than Mr Xi were Vladimir Putin (7 per cent) and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un (3 per cent).

Respondents continued to express high levels of support for Ukraine, with three-quarters supporting the provision of military aid to the war-torn country.