ANZAC spirit in battle of COVID-19 lockdown

Despite our neighbours’ ‘go hard, go early’ policy, Australia is tracking slightly better than NZ in reducing transmission rates.

Scott Morrison with New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Picture: Getty Images

Australia is tracking slightly better than New Zealand in reducing COVID transmission rates, a ­surprise result that may suggest our trans-Tasman neighbour’s strict “go hard, go early” approach resulted in less community ­compliance, according to one of Australia’s leading infectious diseases experts.

Peter Collignon said the latest data showed New Zealand, with a population of 4.7 million, had about 20 new COVID-19 cases a day compared with Australia, population 25.5 million, averaging about 50 a day.

He said the good news was that both countries had managed to reverse the curve, but while New Zealand had imposed more draconian “level four” lockdown measures, Australia’s less stringent approach appeared to have been as effective.

“New Zealand has been locking everybody in their houses, there’s no going to Bunnings, and there is no evidence they are doing any better,” Professor Collignon said.

“I actually worry that what may be happening in New Zealand is if you come down too hard, people stop complying as much as they should.”

Professor Collignon said while hardline measures in countries such as Britain, Italy, Spain and the US were the only hope of trying to bring down uncontrolled levels of transmissions, Australia and New Zealand were among the few countries, like South Korea, where infection rates had been reduced to a “low, flat tail”.

At his daily national briefing on Thursday, Scott Morrison weighed in with his own boast about how effective our lockdown measures had been, even pipping New Zealand at the post in flattening the COVID-19 curve.

“Our measures have largely mirrored each other; New Zealand decided to go a lot further but I note the outcomes we are getting are actually on a per capita basis better,” the Prime Minister said.

“That is not a criticism, that is just to say we managed to get as good if not a better outcome.”

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On Thursday, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters urged Australia to reopen borders between the countries, proposing they could operate in a “trans-­Tasman bubble”.

Mr Morrison ruled it out, at least in the short term.

Professor Collignon, who is advising the commonwealth on infection control protocols, said it was still far too early to “take the foot off the brake” but while it would be at least a year before Australia would consider reopening its borders, it was not as constrained as countries reduced to disaster zones, and should consider loosening some restrictions in the near future, including reopening schools.

“I can see why people worry about schools … but do we leave schools closed for two years when there’s a vaccine?” Professor Collignon said.

“There is no rule book for this — you’ve got to be prepared to change as data changes.”

Raina MacIntyre, a public health expert and head of biosecurity at the NSW Kirby Institute, said it was far too early to assess the real impact of Australia’s lockdowns and challenged the federal government’s “dogged determination to keep schools open”.

“I am reminded of all the backslapping and self-congratulations in Singapore a few weeks ago,” Professor MacIntyre said.

“Now infection rates there are out of control and the country has just been forced to close their schools. We could end up like Sweden with a fatality rate of 9 per cent because they have just let it rip. Look at the US, the UK, Italy where you see babies dying, you see young people dying.”