Shining a light on Australia’s energy future

Renewable energy projects in the pipeline are enough for Australia to meet its existing Paris target.

Research group Bloomberg claims to have seen Australia’s energy future — and the heavy lifters will be solar households with storage and gas.

The international group has confirmed the view of Energy Minister Angus Taylor that renewable energy projects already in the pipeline are enough for Australia to meet its existing Paris Agreement target.

Australia was the world’s fifth-biggest spender on renewable energy projects last year when, according to the Clean Energy Council, 38 projects were completed and more than 2.3GW of new renewable energy capacity entered the Australian market.

At the end of 2018, 14.8GW of new generation was under construction, representing a further $24.5 billion in investment over the next three years.

Bloomberg estimates that the future grid will be underpinned by wind and solar with batteries and pumped hydro to smooth variability.

Gas capacity will need to be increased from 18GW today to 29GW in 2050, by which time almost all coal capacity will have closed.

In Bloomberg’s view, people power will drive the revolution.

To date, households and businesses have installed around 10GW of solar on their rooftops, making Australia the second-biggest user of solar per capita. By 2030, Bloomberg estimates, this figure will grow to 38GW, and by 2050 rooftop solar capacity will increase to 61GW, enough to supply nearly one-quarter of the country’s electricity demand.

Bloomberg says behind-the-meter storage and demand response will help to balance the influx of new rooftop solar, lifting the household share of electricity supply to 39 per cent.

To get there, Bloomberg estimates Australia will spend $US107bn ($156bn) on renewable energy generation.

Solar generation for households and business represents $US49bn. Large-scale wind and solar represent an additional $US58bn, and $US24bn will be required for new gas generation capacity.

If correct, Bloomberg’s analysis raises serious policy and environmental questions.

These include: who will guarantee that power always is there when it is needed? How much money must be spent on grid upgrades to accommodate the rollout of renewables and who will foot the bill?

The issue of equity and fairness in the solar revolution is a global conundrum.

The evidence is solar investment remains heavily subsidy-dependent.

Environmentally, the world is only starting to grapple with what could become a 21st-century waste monster as short-lived wind turbines, solar panels and batteries reach the end of life and need to be replaced.