Victoria decides: Put down the fists and threats, voters want a rest
For well over two years, there have been grave fears of violence against political figures. No one really talks much about these issues but the concerns are real.
Catherine Cumming is a low-flying, some might argue reckless, Victorian MP who personifies one of the bigger challenges for whoever leads the southern state after this weekend’s election.
Cumming is running for the Angry Victorians Party on a platform that exploits remnant community unrest over Labor’s handling of the pandemic.
She was investigated this week by Victoria Police after standing outside Flinders Street Station in the centre of Melbourne, declaring in front of reporters: “I joined the Angry Victorians Party for one reason – to make Daniel Andrews turn into red mist.”
“In the army we would call it pink mist but I want him (turned) into red mist. Give anyone here in the army a job to blow someone up and they will.”
Cumming argued that red mist was a play on Labor’s red shirts scandal, where the party rorted taxpayers’ money to help win the 2014 election. Her words, like the bullets so often used by marksmen, sounded hollow but police did not pursue her. The best that can be said for Cumming is that she was dangerously ambiguous with her words.
For well over two years, there have been serious security issues facing mainly government MPs at both a state and federal level amid death threats and grave fears pandemic frustrations would lead to violence against political figures.
No one really talks much about these issues but the concerns are real; they underpin the challenges facing politicians in the Covid-19 era; and they pose an ongoing challenge after the weekend.
One senior political figure said after the Cumming incident: “It’s out of control. We’re not far from political violence.”
Political violence is a euphemism for an attempt to take a life.
Victoria remains an unhappy state, where the long-term effects of the pandemic lockdowns are still lingering, with deep pockets of irrational anger that permeates across the community.
Many cannot sensibly debate policy divisions and have used the frustrations to drive hatred of the political establishment, which has included not only the divisive Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews but also former federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg and former federal health minister Greg Hunt.
Liberal leader Matthew Guy, who started the election with what looked like next to no hope of winning, neatly captured the party’s campaign strategy at the Sky News/Herald Sun televised debate this week when he said: “Our state deserves a premier who can unite us, not divide us.”
The Liberal campaign was, somewhat ironically, built around tearing down Andrews, who has been Labor leader for 12 years. That’s equivalent to 100 years in any normal job. So having promised to unite the state, the Liberal leader has actually been seeking to further divide it.
No one can blame Guy, politically. And, to be sure, Andrews would have done the same thing.
In fact, there have been plenty of times during the election campaign when Guy has actually sounded like Andrews, using similar strategies to deflect questions that the Labor leader has used to great effect.
For all the genuine loathing of Andrews among Coalition MPs, there is also an acceptance that he has been a formidable political opponent.
But a healer? No one who watched Andrews tear down two Liberal premiers between 2010 and 2014 would underestimate his white-line fever or his determination to win.
Whatever happens this weekend, it is hard to see Andrews wanting another four years in parliament, certainly not as premier. Which means Labor will need to look to someone new after a year or two and that person would ideally be a fresh face, unencumbered by the baggage of the pandemic years.
Even if Andrews has worked hard to position his deputy Jacinta Allan as his successor, others question whether the ALP can endure another hardhead.
The Allan critics dream of a resurrection of a softer character like former premier Steve Bracks, who defeated Kennett in 1999. Bracks was a healer with a sharp political mind and a fiscal conservative. Allan has many strengths but is she ultimately that person to heal the state?
Veteran members of the Victorian Right believe the broad faction has underdelivered during the Andrews years, failing to demand fiscal discipline and prosecute from within caucus the argument for commonsense during the worst of the pandemic restrictions.
Andrews, meanwhile, spent the final days of the campaign warning of higher unemployment, cuts and less infrastructure if Guy were to be elected.
“A bigger economy is what we need. We don’t need cuts,” he said while campaigning at the new Metro Tunnel rail project which will cost an estimated $11bn. “Now is not the time for a smaller Victorian economy.”
Commenting on Guy’s demands for a change in leadership style, Andrews said: “I think substance is what’s really important.”
Guy, meanwhile, ran an election campaign where he spent furiously even though the state is hurtling towards a mind-bending $166bn of debt. The Liberal leader late in the week accused Andrews of lying, scaring, talking the state down and sneering at the community. “That sums up the past,” Guy said.
The final election results will decide whether Guy had a sufficiently good campaign or not. On face value, he did well enough but the latest Newspoll looks damning. A 48-year-old former staffer in the Kennett government, he is one of the most experienced state politicians in the country, who learnt a great deal from his previous stint as leader in 2018, which triggered a landslide Labor win and just 27 Coalition seats in an 88-seat parliament.
This was fuelled by a campaign four years ago that critics argued was too focused on crime and not enough on cost of living. The Liberal campaign of 2022 has been much tighter and much more focused; this time on Andrews and everything he entails.
There is nothing like a win to fix entrenched disenchantment, which well captures the mood in the Victorian Liberal party. For 19 of the past 23 years, Labor has been in charge in Victoria and that single term was characterised by inertia.
In the final days of the campaign, senior Liberals were still actively considering who would replace Guy after this weekend’s election. The latest Newspoll figures make that prospect even more likely.
Whatever happens, voters will be looking for a period of healing, one where the black days of the lockdowns are traded for some light and shade.
The past month of partisan bickering – and at times dangerous political posturing – only highlights the need for a shift in direction.
Voters want a rest. Which is why the next person to lead the state – whenever that might be – needs to be a healer and not a bar room brawler.
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