NewsBite

Political firing squad for MP shoots down Libs’ poll hopes

The pointless sacrifice of a ‘mate’ — and the Liberals’ best performer — has hurt Matthew Guy’s election chances in Victoria.

Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy and Liberal MP Tim Smith during Question Time at State Parliament. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Sarah Matray
Victorian Opposition leader Matthew Guy and Liberal MP Tim Smith during Question Time at State Parliament. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Sarah Matray

“I think he just killed me.” Tim Smith said little else as he huddled around a phone on a veranda, on Melbourne Cup day last year, trying to keep the sunlight off the screen. Around the phone were his parents, and his political adviser, Caroline Inge, also federal vice-president of the Liberal Party. They were watching a press conference on Facebook Live where his great political mate, Liberal Opposition Leader Matthew Guy, announced that Smith should not recontest his seat at the next election and would never sit on a frontbench of any parliamentary Liberal Party Guy leads.

As political neckings go, it was swift and certain. Smith had, after all, committed a grave error of judgment the previous Saturday evening, driving while drunk and crashing into a fence near a home in Hawthorn. There were no excuses: Smith said as much when he spoke with Guy that night.

It would later emerge that Smith had abruptly left a dinner at a friend’s home on that October 30 evening, after hearing from Jane Garrett, one of his closest friends, that breast cancer she thought was contained and cured had spread throughout her body. Gutsy Labor MP Garrett, who died aged 49 in July, was farewelled at a state memorial service in Melbourne on Friday.

Garrett was a rarity in Labor politics, willing to challenge powerful union bosses, and Labor Premier Daniel Andrews, to side with the Country Fire Authority volunteers in a territorial dispute in 2016.

The friendship between the two political brave hearts began when they were in local politics: Smith was mayor of Stonnington and Garrett mayor of Yarra. A month ago, during condolence motions for Garrett in the Victorian parliament, an emotional Smith said: “There was no one you’d want more in a trench with you. She was my inspiration. Jane was my best friend.”

Smith made no excuses for driving while drunk that fateful evening after learning Garrett’s dreadful news. Speaking to Guy by phone after the crash, Smith offered to resign from the frontbench. Guy told Smith he would remain on the frontbench.

Smith speaks to media after crashing his car while drunk.
Smith speaks to media after crashing his car while drunk.

Smith knew that remaining on the frontbench was untenable. Redemption doesn’t come without pain. He would need to be demoted, a stint in the freezer on the backbench. But with an election the following year, Smith could have been rehabilitated, politically fit in time for combat. He was, after all, the opposition’s best performer, a true-believing warrior who single-handedly took the fight up to the Andrews government.

After one of the longest, most severe lockdowns by any government in the world, with untold costs inflicted on children, families, thousands of vulnerable migrants in apartment blocks, businesses, not to mention corruption allegations, quarantine incompetence, police overreach and bureaucratic bungling, an alternative Liberal government should have been riding high to victory.

Instead, according to last weekend’s Newspoll, Andrews is on track for another victory. Smith’s absence is being sorely felt in Liberal ranks. And it need not have unfolded the way it did.

While the largely pro-Andrews media in Melbourne, the Labor government and Smith’s internal enemies were already proclaiming the last rites on his career, Guy insisted during phone calls with Smith and others, in the days after the car crash, that Guy needed Smith.

Inquirer has been told by numerous sources that Guy insisted to Smith that he must stay in politics, that the whole political endeavour to win government was a waste of time without him, that Guy couldn’t do it without Smith by his side. Even after Guy’s Melbourne Cup press conference, Guy assured Smith later that day he should remain in parliament.

Smith had been instrumental in resurrecting Guy as leader in September last year, moving the spill motion in the party room. The young MP held three important shadow portfolios – attorney-general, finance and Covid co-ordination. Some MPs, and some people within Guy’s office, were jealous of Smith’s close friendship with, and influence over, the Liberal leader. Not to mention Smith’s profile.

His willingness to publicly challenge some lockdown measures had lifted the MP’s standing, not just across Victoria but beyond. Whereas in Britain, and other countries, there was a more robust debate about lockdowns, modelling, the heightened powers assumed by health officials, police and bureaucrats, there was negligible pushback in Australia. But Smith could be heard across the country on TV or radio holding Andrews and other lockdown enforcers to account. Given the fear-driven conformism during Covid, it took guts to challenge the iron-fisted rule of Andrews.

Polling shows Victorian Premier Dan Andrews is on track to retain government. Picture NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie
Polling shows Victorian Premier Dan Andrews is on track to retain government. Picture NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

Guy, and other senior Liberals, panicked again when a poll was under way over the days of November 4-7 about Victorian state politics. Several questions polled voters about Smith, given his “car accident last weekend while driving under the influence”. Weirdly, a question asked how people felt about former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott. Unsurprisingly, it was mostly committed Labor voters who marked both men down as “very unfavourable”.

Understandably, Smith’s camp saw the poll as a stitch-up to end his career, and to counter the former prime minister’s glowing reference for Smith for his intended preselection: “Any move to shame (Smith) into resigning would smack of jealously, mean-spiritedness and factional payback. He is a substantial political talent, a decent man of good character,” wrote Abbott on November 2, “who will be a better person for the humiliation he is now enduring and will come back stronger for our party and for our country.”

The Opposition Leader was living in a parallel universe if he thought Smith could survive the leader asserting that the young MP would never serve on a frontbench. Politics being a fertile ground for rumours, some Victorian Liberal MPs, state and federal, think Josh Frydenberg could have done more to publicly support Smith. Having cut Smith loose, Frydenberg threw his support behind Jess Wilson as the new candidate for Kew, a state seat that overlaps with Frydenberg’s former seat of Kooyong.

Smith, Guy and Josh Frydenberg
Smith, Guy and Josh Frydenberg

Last weekend, Wilson attacked Smith in the media, saying “people” are telling her they are “relieved that the current member is not continuing”. Wilson’s witless attack caused further unrest within Liberal ranks about Frydenberg’s role. The former treasurer removed from office at the May federal election denies any involvement.

Last November, an older war-hardened warrior reached out to the younger one. Former foreign minister Alexander Downer rang Smith from London and told him not to resign. “Let the preselectors throw you out, let the voters do that at an election, but don’t resign. Make them shoot you in the street,” he said.

Speaking from London this week, Downer told Inquirer he was very disappointed “the Victorian Liberal Party got rid of their best performer”. “Every party needs warriors, not just managers and passengers. You don’t win elections without warriors.”

Smith’s political skills during the election campaign would not have assured a win but his absence must hurt the Liberals’ chances. Without Smith, Guy’s performance has become more erratic in recent weeks. His office is a mess after the donor-funding scandal led to the removal of his chief of staff, Mitch Catlin. Guy’s evasive interview following that debacle with 3AW’s Tom Elliott was a trainwreck, leading one caller to liken it to listening to Prince Andrew’s BBC interview.

That’s harsh, but Guy isn’t helping himself by attacking Sky News, The Age and even blocking The Australian’s Sophie Elsworth on Twitter. Guy’s TikTok video – a mock-up of him pretending to be on Love Island – is bizarre. As one pundit put it, which demographic is he chasing? Teenage schoolgirls?

Smith remained quiet from the day he agreed to step down from his political career on November 7 until after the federal election in May. Since then, he has been critiquing policy, not personnel, pointing out the lunacy of the state Liberals going further on emissions policy than Labor, crossing the floor to vote against a state treaty with Indigenous people on the basis that it panders to radicals and will do nothing to close the disadvantage gap.

Meanwhile, under Guy, the Victorian Liberals are a poor man’s copycat version of Labor, with a few minor tweaks, and the added indignation of no recent history of delivering sound government. At a federal level, the Liberals at least had a history of economic management to point to during the election. And still, they failed to hold office. Frydenberg’s loss was a microcosm for broader electoral failure.

Under Guy, the Victorian Liberals are a poor man’s copycat version of Labor, with a few minor tweaks, and the added indignation of no recent history of delivering sound government. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw
Under Guy, the Victorian Liberals are a poor man’s copycat version of Labor, with a few minor tweaks, and the added indignation of no recent history of delivering sound government. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

As Smith wrote after the election: “The Liberal campaign in Kooyong had no message, aside from ‘Keep Josh’, but most importantly it said nothing about what the Liberal Party stands for that will improve the lives of the people of Kooyong or anywhere else in the years ahead.”

The consequences of a weak Victorian Liberal Party are serious for Australian democracy. It means that one of the most power-hungry governments in the country is not held to account, voters do not have a serious contender as an alternative government and, federally, the Liberals cannot rely on Victoria for winnable seats at the next election.

Last weekend, when doorstopped at the party’s state council, the Opposition Leader sounded genuinely saddened about losing Smith: “He’s not a liar. He’s a good person. I am very sad that I lost a friendship.”

The unnecessary breakdown of that friendship when Guy panicked last November may turn out to be part of a bigger loss for the party come November this year.

Read related topics:FacebookVictoria Politics
Janet Albrechtsen

Janet Albrechtsen is an opinion columnist with The Australian. She has worked as a solicitor in commercial law, and attained a Doctorate of Juridical Studies from the University of Sydney. She has written for numerous other publications including the Australian Financial Review, The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Sunday Age, and The Wall Street Journal.

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/political-firing-squad-for-mp-shoots-down-libs-poll-hopes/news-story/cd943f5631b0ebcab0eb4f9baccb84e1