PM wins week one ... but don’t dismiss a Trump flip

Punters remain disengaged, which could mean they don’t like any of the choices on offer.

US President Donald Trump helped Anthony Albanese win week one of the election campaign in a points decision. Artwork: Frank Ling

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Last week I predicted the federal election would produce a minority Labor government. I saw nothing during week one of the campaign that changes my view.

Having said that, events in the US have pushed the focus off cost-of-living issues, and that is a good outcome for Labor as the incumbent. US President Donald Trump helped Anthony Albanese win week one in a points decision.

There were no knockout punches. Both leaders worked energetically and there were no big mistakes. However, there were reminders that mistakes inevitably will come.

Peter Dutton’s press conference following Trump’s tariffs announcement was untidy and, unsurprisingly, the media pack responded energetically and aggressively. If the Opposition Leader’s people don’t start feeding the media beast with some policy substance it will devour their boss.

The Prime Minister’s bad moment was his initial and underwhelming response to revelations a public school had offered students an opt-out option for Anzac Day services. He wasted no time tidying up and that caravan moved on quickly.

Opinion polls are landing almost hourly. Yet over the course of Thursday I conducted my own poll. I asked the many I spoke with what was the one piece of campaign-related news they heard and remembered this week. The results were all over the place. Some were funny and others scary in their misinterpretation of events. But the only response I heard more than a few times was a variation of “I can’t think of one”. The punters remain disengaged.

This lack of interest can mean many things. It could be good news for Labor, suggesting low levels of voter dissatisfaction and discontent. It also could mean they don’t particularly like any of the choices on offer. Either way, uninterest favours the incumbent and, to have any chance of winning, Dutton must desert his comfort zone to pique their interest.

This he needs to do quickly. Labor was faster out of the election campaign blocks. That’s unsurprising given it held the starter’s gun. But if Dutton is to run Albanese down, he doesn’t have an hour to lose. Pre-poll voting soon will be upon us, dramatically bringing the finish line nearer for many voters.

The first of the televised leaders’ debates will be held next week. While they won’t out-rate the footy finals, the highlights will be re-run to death. Could they provide a circuit-breaker? We shall see. But what we do know is they spell danger for both candidates and any mistakes will receive more coverage than any good moments.

A big unknown is what millennial and Gen-Z voters are thinking. What we do know is that for the first time they will outnumber baby boomers. This matters for several reasons.

First, they’re interested in different issues than are baby boomers. Second, they source their information not from traditional media but from social media and new media-like podcasts and YouTube. The party that best reaches them will be well rewarded. Third, they have no cultural attachment to the major parties.

There was a time young people voted for the party their parents and grandparents supported. Those days are well behind us.

As pollster Kos Samaras points out, some parts of the electorate can be hard to read in focus group sessions. Chief among them are immigrants who don’t feel comfortable talking about their voting preferences. By extension, that means it’s hard to read the impact issues such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas will have in multicultural electorates – another unknown.

Back to Trump. What will be his impact for the balance of the campaign? I was in Washington during the week of the President’s inauguration. There I felt the power of the MAGA movement and warned of possible adverse implications for the Labor Party at home.

That view grew stronger after a week back in Australia. Here I detected a change in attitudes and language. People seemed more willing to speak out against an increasingly progressive policy agenda.

But for the moment, at least, the tables have turned. The tariff issue is generating concern and helping political incumbents around the world. Further, in that environment Labor is framing Dutton as “Trump-like”.

When in government, Dutton put a big effort into developing a tough-guy image and it worked well for him in his national security portfolios. But now it’s making things easier for those working hard to associate him with Trump’s more extravagant and unpopular actions.

However, given the US President’s unpredictability and penchant for shock and awe, no one can be sure the Trump effect won’t flip once more.

To paraphrase a former US defence secretary, in this election there are plenty of known knowns and known unknowns. But it’s the likelihood of unknown unknowns emerging that makes many reluctant to predict the final result.

Joel Fitzgibbon was Labor member for the NSW seat of Hunter, 1996-2022, and the defence minister, 2007-09.