Don’t dismiss Dutton’s ability to rally troops

He’s the leader of the hard Right yet he’s more moderate than many realise. But how does he pivot without losing his base?

Former Defence Minister Peter Dutton with wife Kirilly, daughter Rebecca, 20, and sons Tom. 16. and Harry. 17 (far R) , near the Federal Government offices in Brisbane. Dutton is set to become the leader of the Liberal party in opposition. Lyndon Mechielsen/The Australian

There is always understandable euphoria when a change of government happens. In Labor’s case, this is only the fourth time it has won its way into government from opposition since World War II. Anthony Albanese is therefore ­already a Labor hero.

Nevertheless, the new Prime Minister needs to be careful not to underestimate Peter Dutton, who is certain to take over as opposition leader. Scott Morrison made the mistake of underestimating Albo after Labor’s 2019 devastation.

Things can change quickly in politics and the new government is in for a rough ride managing a budget burdened by a structural deficit and a global economy on the brink. If that wasn’t hard enough, rising inflation and interest rates will test the patience of voters struggling with cost-of-living pressures.

Dutton and the opposition will pounce on such hardships, notwithstanding the Coalition’s failure to manage the strains on the economy during its time in power.

To be sure, Dutton’s job will be hard too. The internal divisions defeat brings to the fore won’t be easily managed. And new governments don’t tend to lose after one term. The last one-term government to be defeated was back in 1931 during the Depression, James Scullin’s Labor government.

The Coalition and the Liberals have much to work out before being able to hold Labor to account convincingly. Which policy scripts do they keep and which do they throw away? How do they calibrate their parliamentary line-up better, in terms of gender for starters? Do they moderate in a bid to reclaim teal seats or do they push towards policy positions that appeal to electorates they must win off Labor in the outer suburbs?

Right now there are question marks over Dutton’s suitability to lead. The defeat of Josh Frydenberg in his traditionally blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong narrowed the options. Perhaps the biggest problem for the Coalition is the lack of talent on its frontbench. Slim pickings would be an understatement.

But Dutton can’t be easily dismissed. He has built a long-term political career occupying senior cabinet and parliamentary positions, and he has done so while holding what really should be a Labor seat. There is a lot of talk about Dutton’s unelectability as an alternative prime minister, but most of it comes from people who wouldn’t vote Liberal in a pink fit. We’ve seen similar references made about past leaders who have gone on to win elections.

While Dutton is the unofficial leader of the hard Right within the Liberal Party, he’s more moderate on religious policy than people may realise. For some reason that hasn’t crimped his appeal to right-wing Liberal constituencies.

His next step is to broaden his appeal, but he won’t do that with a disingenuous shift to the left that moderates (the few left in the parliamentary party) would like to see. That would cause more problems than it solves, it pains me to admit.

The most difficult question Dutton faces is this: how does he credibly pivot without losing his base? Walking the line between the increasingly divergent “broad church” that is the Liberal Party – or that was before the teal revolt – without fracturing the Coalition with the Nationals?

Dutton should do OK managing the Coalition. As a Queenslander with the world view he has, that part of the puzzle is somewhat easy relative to other challenges.

Barnaby Joyce doesn’t deserve to be removed as Nationals leader based on the junior Coalition partner’s performance at the election. While Liberals lost seats to the teals and Labor, the Nationals retained all their seats. But Joyce suffers from the same perception problems Morrison did and he represents the past, not the future. His appeal in Queensland is also of downgraded importance with Dutton the Queenslander as opposition leader.

A big challenge for Dutton is finding more women to promote, including around him in key leadership roles to help with his image and policy development, to show the Coalition is serious about addressing the fact women turned off the party in droves at this election.

He can’t conjure up more women in the parliamentary ranks, and the defeat of Katie Allen, Celia Hammond, Amanda Stoker and Fiona Martin won’t help either. Even if he can convince good women to join the Liberals and contest key seats at the next poll, that’s three years away and it won’t help here and now.

There is a risk Marise Payne retires from politics. Linda Reynolds remains damaged in the eyes of the public. Senators Jane Hume and Anne Ruston are on the rise but they are in the wrong chamber to be visually front and centre. In fact all four are senators. Karen Andrews needs a key portfolio but she isn’t close to Dutton. They duked it out for preselection many years ago when she first entered parliament. Sussan Ley may become Dutton’s deputy as the only viable senior woman in the lower house.

One thing the lack of firepower in Liberal parliamentary ranks among the blokes does do is help reduce the chances of Dutton being immediately undermined by ambitious alternative leaders within. But never underestimate the capacity for wannabes to believe in themselves. Angus Taylor sits at the front of that queue.

While Dutton needs to approach the next election aiming to win, starting on 59 seats and needing 76 to form majority government suggests a two-term strategy is more likely. But new leadership rules that protected Bill Shorten and Albanese from internal challenges don’t apply to the Liberals in opposition. Morrison established similar rules for the Liberals but only in government – another one of his self-interested moves.

Dutton’s strategy will be to go after Labor in the hope of taking away its majority at the next election. Win two seats off Labor without losing any and the majority is gone. Win a half-dozen and things get interesting. Labor would have to form minority government in collaboration with remaining independents and Greens. Perhaps Dutton wins back a few teal seats along the way, pushing Coalition seats north of 65.

In the aftermath of such a crystal ball election three years from now Albanese would be damaged and Dutton would be seen to have performed well. Teals would have to declare their allegiances.

It would be a version of the 1984 election in which Andrew Peacock exceeded expectations, without someone like John Howard lurking in the wings. Unless Frydenberg fought his way back into parliament at the next election. Ponder that for a moment.

But for now, assuming Dutton takes over and the Coalition doesn’t descend into a period of complete madness (of which there are no guarantees), he’ll try to position himself as tough on China, tough on boats and experienced on the economy (he was assistant treasurer to Peter Costello in the final term of Howard’s prime ministership). Expect debt and deficits suddenly to matter again.

Dutton’s image is one-dimensional, but there is a reason his colleagues came so close to selecting him as their leader in government against Malcolm Turnbull and Morrison, and why he has defied the odds to win a marginal seat time and time again. On the hustings Dutton is far more personable than the wider public or his critics realise.

He is therefore not to be underestimated, which is not to understate the challenges he faces.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.