Cabinet Papers 1992 -1993: documents released from Paul Keating’s Labor cabinet

Repeatedly during 1992 and 1993, as documented in cabinet papers released today, Keating government seemed doomed.

Paul and Annita Keating claiming the sweetest victory of them all after the 1993 Federal Election. Picture: Supplied.

The first two years of Paul Keating’s prime ministership were the political equivalent of a rollercoaster that plunged the government to the depths of despair but saw it climb back to claim a stunning election victory only to then see its support tumble again followed by another lift in the polls.

Time and time again during 1992 and 1993 — as documented in the cabinet papers released by the National Archives of Australia — the Keating government seemed doomed as it wrestled with policy challenges that echo with contemporary relevance.

As soon as Mr Keating was sworn-in as prime minister on December 20, 1991, he began shaping the next iteration of his “big-picture” agenda — a new push into Asia, advancing a republic and pursing indigenous reconciliation — while grappling with a sluggish economy emerging from recession.

Mr Keating’s immediate challenge was to develop a fiscal stimulus plan to increase growth, create jobs and boost confidence. As ministers began work on the One Nation statement, the cabinet resisted suggestions from business and unions to halt tariff reductions or delay the introduction of a national superannuation scheme.

The former Treasurer, despite supreme confidence in his abilities, remained unpopular with voters and struggled in the early months to win over a weary nation buffeted by a decade of economic reform and a party debilitated by a leadership struggle with Bob Hawke.

Nevertheless, a busy cabinet debated a series of familiar issues: mandatory detention for refugees, racial vilification laws, climate change, how to fund Medicare and ending discrimination against gays serving in the military.

Keating archives 1992-93

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Mr Keating appointed Malcolm Turnbull to chair an advisory committee on a republic, called for a new flag and changed the citizenship oath to remove any mention of the Queen.

None of this seemed like a sound strategy to win re-election. Most commentators took it as gospel that John Hewson would lead the Coalition to victory in 1993. The polls seesawed. But Mr Keating did win a no-holds-barred contest that seized on the Coalition’s proposed 15 per cent GST, restrictions on Medicare and overhaul of industrial relations.

Having won “the sweetest victory of all”, Mr Keating wasted no time pushing for non-union enterprise bargaining, leading to a fight with the unions. The government’s political capital was further eroded when Treasurer John Dawkins’ 1993 budget raised indirect taxes, cut spending on social services and privatised government assets. While designed to improve the budget bottom line, it was seen as a breach of faith and the political damage was lasting.

On New Year’s Day 1992, Mr Keating presented US president George HW Bush with a grand plan to establish regular regional leaders’ meetings. Mr Keating’s “shuttle diplomacy” through 1992-93 convinced Asia-Pacific leaders, and new US president Bill Clinton, and the first was held in Seattle in 1993.

No cabinet issue was more difficult than developing a legislative response to the High Court’s Mabo judgment that found native title existed in common law. The government faced opposition from the states, the Coalition, indigenous leaders, business and farming groups. The public were confused by the issues — not helped by suggestions their backyards were at risk.

But Mr Keating insisted it was not a distraction and spent more time on negotiating the legislation than anything else. When the Native title Act finally won Senate approval in December 1993, there was jubilation in the parliamentary lobbies and morale was boosted inside the government. But it is doubtful Mabo won the government any votes.

As the Liberals dumped Mr Hewson in 1994 and then cycled through Alexander Downer before returning to John Howard in 1995, it often looked as though Mr Keating would govern well into the ‘90s. But the voters, while respecting Mr Keating if not enamoured with him, were tiring of a government that had been in power since 1983.