NDIS eligibility had to change for autistic kids. Now it’s finally out in the open
For the first time the Albanese government has acknowledged the NDIS will change its rules to stop accepting kids with mild and moderate autism.
About time.
Let’s be blunt. The National Disability Insurance Scheme was originally intended for “people with significant and permanent care and support needs”. These kids are on the NDIS through mission creep after other government-funded support disappeared in the wake of the scheme’s creation more than a decade ago. Parents were left high and dry.
In announcing his new Thriving Kids program, a rebadging of part of the stalled state-federal negotiations to fund and build a system of “foundational supports” for this cohort outside the NDIS in settings like schools and early learning, Butler acknowledged it would “be hard for some parents to hear”.
“Diverting this group of kids over time from the NDIS is an important element of making the scheme sustainable and returning it to its original intent,” he said. “Access and eligibility changes will be made to do that once the Thriving Kids Program is fully rolled out.”
Butler knows families will be loath to give up services their children have been receiving. There are a lot of them, and they vote.
But so too does the average Australian taxpayer looking at a $100bn-plus bill every year for the NDIS within a decade without something changing.
And as Butler himself pointed out, these autistic kids with moderate needs are receiving an average of 70 therapy sessions a year, and without a rigorous assessment of therapeutic benefit.
Something had to give.
Butler has put up $2bn for the Commonwealth’s share of the program. It is understood this will come from the federal commitment already made back in 2023 when the states and feds agreed to each put in about $5bn over five years for foundational supports, part of a broader state-federal health funding deal. But given the go-slow since he made it clear he would take the lead in designing the program. It’s now up to Butler to drive an outcome.
Grattan Institute modelling suggests about $3bn a year would cover off the range of programs needed outside the NDIS to provide support in communities, schools and preschool for kids with autism.
The actual detail of what foundational supports would cover has always been opaque. Advocates say the process has been shrouded in mystery for months.
Butler has put some meat on the bones, potentially including a new bulk-billed Medicare item for three-year-old health checks to pick up developmental delay and co-ordinating therapists within schools rather than having one for each individual student.
Rightfully there’s a recognition by Butler that the scheme’s “social licence” was under pressure due to its escalating cost and its widespread rorting.
And he put some new numbers around NDIS cost growth, saying he wouldn’t be satisfied in reaching the 8 per cent annual growth agreed by national cabinet and would be looking at a longer term 5 per cent to 6 per cent range.
Regaining public trust will require the NDIS doing its job for the most profoundly disabled at a cost the country can afford. This means the federal and state governments will need to deliver on their commitment to adequately support kids with autism in mainstream settings.
Let’s hope the path to Thriving Kids runs more smoothly than the last 18 months of negotiations on foundational supports. For everybody’s sake.

Mark Butler has finally said what until now had been considered political poison – that NDIS eligibility will be changed to stop children with mild to moderate autism and development delay entering the scheme and move the hundreds of thousands of kids already there out.