US election: Not much will change in this country for old men

Illustration: Johannes Leak

As counting continues and Joe Biden’s lead extends, America’s allies are breathing a collective sigh of relief. Trump’s campaign team has already prepared documents to challenge the results in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but it is hard to see the court overturning the verdict of the people.

How can you be a good loser when you can’t even be a good winner? Trump is looking more like the little kid loser who sulks off with his bat and ball. Americans may have to wait weeks before a confirmed winner emerges.

Elections are never won in a courtroom, they are won on the streets and in the homes of voters and eventually at the ballot box.

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Trump did show the world that he is a fighter with an unbelievable store of courage and strength. There are not too many people in their 70s who could match him for energy. It is too early to tell if his last-minute barnstorming tour where he crisscrossed the country did him much good, but in any event it seems not to have been enough. Apparently Biden did himself more good by dropping out of sight and hiding in his basement, but impressions mean a great deal in politics and that may not have helped him. He gives the impression he is old and doddery — because he is. Trump gives the ­impression that he ignores advice and shoots from the hip — because he does.

That someone as ordinary as Biden could raise so much in campaign funds probably says more about what American’s thought about Trump. No matter how weak Biden turned out to be, he wasn’t Trump. This was all about electing anyone but Trump.

From Australia’s point of view, both candidates are committed to the alliance, although Trump tends to be more isolationist, notwithstanding that the US foreign policy establishment is locked in to the ANZUS Treaty.

While black Americans largely stick with Biden, many will be wondering if anything will change for the better. Poverty among them remains a huge problem and the scourge of violence still hangs over black neighbourhoods. Biden lacks the gravitas to fix problems of this dimension. Few if any inequities in American society will be fixed by a Biden administration, but at least they will not get worse as they have under Trump.

Choosing a cabinet will be a real test for Biden. Will he find places for senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders? Picture: AFP

The real test for Biden will be who he chooses to sit in his cabinet. If, like Reagan, he chooses well, then his schedule may not be too hard to handle for a man of ­advancing years.

Many Americans, though, will remain largely unaware of a change in the presidency. Their lives will go on in much the same way as they have. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Having the right to vote is precious, yet fewer than half those eligible bother to vote in most elections in the US. The presidency has been won in the past by candidates with barely 20 per cent of the vote. With someone like Trump in the race, that percentage was likely to rise because his supporters are a staunch bunch and they will turn out. Those who oppose him have grown in number in the past four years and many of those said they would turn up to vote against him. No matter what the reason, expect this to be a record turnout.

The Democrats may get a workable majority in the Senate as well. I say workable because American senators have a penchant for breaking caucus discipline. John McCain, an hon­ourable man if ever there was one, frequently exercised this right.

When assessing Trump’s character, never forget that he once said about McCain that “he preferred the (veterans) who weren’t captured”. This was a disgusting thing to say about McCain and all the others who were captured and endured cruel and brutal treatment in the hands of their North Vietnamese captors, particularly when Trump himself never fought for his country.

Somewhere along the way the Democrats lost the faith of the people of Florida. One would imagine those elderly voters who move to the Florida sun when they retire helped this trend, as well as the Cuban exiles and Hispanics who congregate in Miami and the rest of Dade County. Now Florida is permanently shaded red in the political map of America. Unless and until the Democrats can unearth another Bill Clinton, they will struggle to break what is now a Republican stronghold.

Outside of the biggest cities, Trump had a base vote that is very difficult to shake. Conservative, rural voters can never bring themselves to vote Democrat, particularly when the candidate is as ordinary as Biden.

This is what has brought us to this knife-edge election where the result is still in doubt days after the polls. The more urbanised the area, the more likely it is to vote Democrat. Rural lobbies are far more powerful, better organised and better funded than they are here in Australia. Australian farmers in general have larger landholdings than their American counterparts, making ours more efficient.

We should all be pleased that it appears the United States is back in steadier hands. Yes, I know he is an old man but it should be noted that Trump is no spring chicken. Both of them would be considered too old to run this country because Australians are simply not wedded to age being a reliable arbiter of good judgment.