Coronavirus, borders: Has WA Premier Mark McGowan gone too far?

WA Premier Mark McGowan.

WA Premier Mark McGowan is as sure a thing as you get in politics to win the next state election, in March next year. His approval rating is hovering at around 90 per cent. There isn’t a more popular politician anywhere in the country.

He trounced the Liberals from opposition nearly four years ago, and if the polls are anywhere near accurate he’ll do so again in a matter of months. Perhaps even increasing his majority.

But McGowan needs to be careful. His tough border policies have been very popular in the parochial west, but is he now going too far? The Premier is refusing to open the borders despite the medical advice now suggesting he do so.

The risk is that McGowan starts to look like a political opportunist, rather than a defender of a tough border policy.

WA really is a parochial state. It makes Queenslanders look like they put their country first and their state second. Many West Aussies go so far as to support secession. It’s an Australian state like no other.

So there is every chance McGowan rejecting the medical advice to maintain tough borders remains popular. I’m just not certain of that anymore, and a lot can change between now and March if he doesn’t open up in time for Christmas.

The biggest risk is that ex-pats being denied the opportunity to return home to their families over the summer because of McGowan’s tough policies builds resentment within those families.

If the broader WA community start to believe McGowan is merely playing politics with the borders the move could backfire.

Alan Carpenter as Premier brought forward an election he had in the bag in 2008 to try and take advantage of leadership instability within the Liberals. That was seen as an opportunistic move and hence it backfired. A popular leader who was seen as above politics was reduced to just another opportunist, and he lost that election when Liberals got their act together quickly and Colin Barnett took over the leadership, coming out of planned retirement to win an unlikely victory.

McGowan was a minister in Carpenter’s government and hence witnessed the backfiring opportunistic move first hand.

Even if voters in WA smell opportunism once more, this time on the borders come March, McGowan will still win. But perhaps not by as much as he otherwise would. That would have the flow on effect of limiting his authority in the election aftermath.

As an admirer of the job McGowan has done standing up to Canberra and the factions and unions within his own party, I don’t want to see that happen.

Zak Kirkup is the new Liberal Opposition leader. Picture: Colin Murty

The Liberals have a new leader — a 33 year old who has only ever worked as a political staffer. They are a mess and the new leader is inexperienced. Only in his first term in parliament in fact. The third Liberal leader in less than four years.

But he has immediately zeroed in on borders, saying that he thinks the medical advice should be followed. That allows Liberals to be tough on borders, but not opportunistic beyond the medical advice. A clever positioning.

McGowan is popular and deserves his win come March. A big win. But he wants to be careful. Opportunism isn’t a trait in political leaders, once exposed, WA voters like to see.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at the University of Western Australia.