Xiao Qian’s glass half-full and threats half-empty

China’s ambassador in Australia caught the national mood well – albeit inadvertently.

“Once somebody threatens you, he might threaten you again,” said Xiao Qian at a press conference on Tuesday to begin the new year.

Australians overwhelmingly agree.

It is why some were braced for trouble when Beijing last week threatened countries, including Australia, that had put Covid testing requirements on travellers coming from China, the current centre of the pandemic.

I thought those threats were routine Communist Party bluster, but I can understand the concern. China followed through with its threats in 2020 over market access for Australian businesses, black-listing exports previously worth $20bn a year.

Ambassador Xiao wasn’t without reason to toast the new year – even if using a glass of Australian red wine, still subject to a tariff of more than 200 per cent, seemed a questionable way to do it.

In recent days, the first load of Australian coal in more than two years has been ordered by a buyer from China.

Reliable sources in Beijing tell me our ambassador in China, Graham Fletcher, has been invited to speak at a Chinese coal industry conference in coming days – another good signal for Canberra, and a further sign of how eager the Chinese steel industry is to be able to again import Australian coking coal.

And there is reason to think Beijing will unwind more of its counter-productive bans after Trade Minister Don Farrell’s visit to China, perhaps as early as February.

It was good to learn overnight that China’s most infamous diplomat, Zhao Lijian, has been sidelined to a desk job. The change in tone from Beijing in recent months should be welcomed, as Japan’s ambassador to Australia told this masthead.

But ambassador Shingo Yamagami’s further advice was also on point: “We have to be vigilant because when it comes to policy and strategy, nothing fundamental seems to have changed on their part.”

On Tuesday, Xi Jinping’s envoy to Australia went out of his way to confirm that assessment.

Attacks on AUKUS continued. So did Beijing’s total refusal to entertain a moment’s self-reflection about why Australia and countries across the Indo-Pacific region are building up their defence forces.

The stunning increase in the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army, combined with Beijing’s opacity about its future intentions, mean Canberra’s defence policy has to be fixated on China, as it was even in the Keating era.

It was good to see Ambassador Xiao begin the year speaking to the media. It’s also good he has continued to meet with Australian interlocutors over the summer, although it would be useful if he broadened his circles of contacts in 2023.

Too many of his meetings in his first year were with the clutch of Australians who agree with him that his host country is unfairly “targeting China as a threat”. That’s a boutique opinion in Australia, as documented in the Lowy Institute’s 2022 Poll.

That Lowy poll shows just how tough the ambassador’s assignment is, finding only one in 10 Australians trusts Xi’s China to act responsibly in the world.

It also suggests he might want to go easy on bashing Japan, a country nine in 10 Australians told Lowy they trust.