If you start a war, make sure you win. It’s an iron law of politics. Don’t expect the victors to thank you for your belligerence. Expect them to find a way you can never repeat your aggression.
That’s the situation the Palestinians in Gaza are in. Hamas decided to end a ceasefire and declare war on Israel on October 7, 2023.
What did they think would happen if they killed 1200 Israelis and took more than 200 hostages?
They knew exactly what would happen. And why did they keep fighting when the Israeli tanks, soldiers, artillery, all supplemented with air support, poured into Gaza?
Did they think if they kept fighting the Israelis would suddenly give up? Of course not.
The objective of Hamas and its backer, Iran, was diplomatic. Of course they knew Israel would retaliate if they declared war on Israel.
Of course they knew if they kept fighting in Gaza the damage and the casualties would grow. They didn’t care because their objective wasn’t to save lives or to offer the Palestinian people a bright future. It was to win an international propaganda war.
The Iranians and their proxies did pretty well for a while.
Feckless and thoughtless governments started calling for Israel to desist from attacking Hamas and Hezbollah – including our own Australian government, incredibly – and resolutions were passed by the UN General Assembly condemning Israel.
The UN secretary-general – arguably the weakest and most clueless the UN has had – and leading UN officials increasingly condemned Israel.
Hamas brilliantly manipulated the Western media.
Breathless Western journalists mainly ensconced in the safety of Jerusalem endlessly repeated Hamas propaganda about casualties and food supplies.
No sceptical forensic analysis of Hamas’s claims, just acceptance of its propaganda on face value.
So this was the objective.
Not to destroy Israel in one blow but to build an international coalition that would demand not just a two-state solution but ultimately the one-state solution that is the ambition of Iran and its proxies.
Of course the Israelis knew all this.
That’s why they were oblivious to continued screeching from Western politicians, international organisations and an unquestioning legacy media.
That is also why Benjamin Netanyahu maintained his military campaign not just to destroy Hamas’s military capability but to destroy that of Hezbollah and finish off Iran’s air defence system.
The Israeli campaign has been a triumph.
If the Palestinians had wanted peace and to avoid casualties, they only had to put up their hands and ask for it.
But they didn’t; they kept firing rocket-propelled grenades, rockets, missiles and antitank weapons at the Israelis. The result was obvious.
So that brings us to the here and now.
What to do next? Well, mindless rhetoric from thoughtless political populists continues to demand Israel agree to a two-state solution. Of course that would be fine if it were at all possible. It’s not as though it hasn’t been tried time and again since 1948.
In 2000 the Palestinians were offered by the Israelis and the Americans 96 per cent of the West Bank, all of Gaza and their capital in East Jerusalem.
They just walked away from the negotiations.
There have been endless negotiations, wars, eruptions of conflict, intifadas and so on since then.
And every time there is a crisis it’s followed by peace talks and everyone settles back comfortably into a status quo that for the Palestinians is one of endless grievance and outrage.
So, after a while, war erupts again.
I’m just wondering how stupid we have to be to think we should keep going through this cycle.
It is time to think of completely new ideas. And, to his credit, that is where Donald Trump has landed.
Whatever the practicality of the US President’s roughly sketched plan, and it clearly requires a good deal more thought and negotiation, he deserves praise for having the courage to talk about a completely new approach to the Middle East peace process.
That stands in stark contrast to the pitiful bleating of the Australian government just repeating the same old mantra of the past 70 years.
Trump wants to make big changes in the Middle East. First, he will need the co-operation of regional partners.
It’s clear, contrary to media speculation, that he has a close relationship with the Israeli Prime Minister and the Israeli government.
In contrast to Joe Biden, Trump is also close to the Saudis. In particular, he has a friendship with the ruler and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman.
He also will need the support of the Emiratis, Bahrainis, the Jordanians and, crucially, the Egyptians.
Contrary to what many believe, none of these governments has any time for Hamas or Hezbollah. They want a peaceful Palestinian state, not a place run by militant Islamists.
Second, Iran has to know that its attempts to destroy Israel by using proxies in the Middle East are well and truly over.
What is more, the Iranian leadership needs to know that any development of a nuclear weapon will be curtains for them.
This is where Trump is truly effective.
He has made it clear that he is resuming maximum pressure on Iran and that, as he puts it rather ominously, Iran will never get a nuclear weapon. It’s obvious what that means.
Finally, third-party players need to keep right out of the Middle East peace process. In particular, there is no role whatsoever for the UN.
The secretary-general has lost all credibility and the behaviour of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East has been beyond the pale.
Not only were some of UNRWA’S people active participants in the Palestinian attack of October but for years they also have been teaching Palestinian children to hate Jews and Israel.
I’ve seen it with my own eyes when I visited Gaza.
For what it’s worth, if I were a foreign minister today, we wouldn’t give one cent to UNRWA. The EU also needs to keep right out of Middle East peace negotiations. And so do the Russians and the Chinese.
This is a great inflection point in the history of the Middle East.
This could be the moment when a genuine and lasting peace plan emerges. But calming down the Palestinians and getting them to accept that the Israelis should be allowed to live in peace is a big ask.
Remember the old saying of Abba Eban, the legendary Israeli foreign minister: “The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” Trump offers them one and the negotiations should begin.
Alexander Downer was foreign minister from 1996 to 2007 and high commissioner to the UK from 2014 to 2018. He is chairman of British think tank Policy Exchange.
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