Xiao Qian, Beijing’s top representative in Australia, told us in these pages on Monday that we should not spend more on defence because he says so and because China is no threat.
But the ambassador failed to mention what China is doing with its aggressive military and maritime militias that are threatening our region right now.
The ambassador’s problem is he knows China does not have a good story to tell on its role in regional security, so he avoids the topic almost entirely. He spends his time in a happier place, trying to refocus our attention on the benefits of engaging with China – without mentioning coercive trade measures on lobster or wine, of course. Instead, we get the usual misdirection we hear from other Chinese officials.
Xiao tells us the worries about China’s military and how President Xi Jinping seeks to use it are just from “some countries” that have “hyped up the so-called China threat narrative”. It is unfortunate for the ambassador’s argument that Xi has already said many times he wants the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared to conquer Taiwan by force and to be able to fight and win at a moment’s notice. Worse, China’s military is listening to Xi’s directions.
This year, it is conducting its largest scale military practice runs around Taiwan for an invasion.
It’s at least as uncomfortable for Xiao’s line that China has never “occupied an inch of foreign land”. Further awkwardness comes from video footage of swarms of Chinese maritime militia vessels invading The Philippines’ waters in recent weeks.
Even politburo members in Xi’s Chinese Communist Party seem to know China does not have a good security story to tell.
The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last month illustrated Beijing’s problem well. Xiao mentions this meeting as the place “the so-called China threat” was raised by “some countries”.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke clearly and openly at this premier regional security event, outlining the challenge of China and the need to deter Chinese leaders from deciding on war against Taiwan and elsewhere.
In stark contrast, and for the first time in years, Beijing could not bring itself to even send the Chinese defence minister. That’s because it has become increasingly embarrassing for Beijing to play pretend in front of a knowledgeable regional audience when it knows, despite words of peace and goodwill, it is busily monstering many of the countries in the room and posturing to invade another place where 24 million people live in peace and freedom.
Fortunately, Xiao is having some luck with his key audience of one in Canberra: Anthony Albanese. As the Prime Minister packs for his fourth meeting with Xi this month, he seems ready to take up the Chinese government’s advice not to invest anything more in Australia’s security in the face of China’s rapid conventional and nuclear armament programs.
When asked again, in light of Xiao’s article, whether China is any kind of security threat, Albanese came out with the same word salad we’re becoming familiar with. He’s incapable of using the words China, security threat and region in the same paragraph, let alone sentence. Instead we get the confused non-response he has used before: “It’s in Australia’s national interest for us to invest in our capability and to invest in our relationships, and we’re doing just that.”
Albanese’s keenness to avoid even mentioning China’s challenges to regional security and sovereignty means he’s certainly not be someone Xi or Xiao will need to chastise for peddling any China threat narrative.
Disturbingly, Albanese seems to be closer to following one of Xi’s primary directives to party members and the most ardent Chinese nationalists – to get out there and tell China’s story well.
The optics of China’s ambassador lecturing the Australian government about how critical it is not to raise defence spending as Washington pressures its allies to stop free-riding on US spending and power in the face of growing threats are awful.
Combined with Albanese’s continued courtship of Xi through the Prime Minister’s impending trip, this sets the context for whenever Albanese manages to finally meet US President Donald Trump, but in the most damaging and obvious ways. This heightens Albanese’s problem of failing to engage Trump. Whatever Albanese does now he looks as if he is too deferential or too defensive. What a shame he can’t just articulate national policy.
Ambassador Xiao’s intervention is highly unusual for a diplomat. His timing just pushes Albanese into even more uncomfortable territory as the Prime Minister defends his inaction on our security in Washington and here at home. Doing nothing looks as if Albanese has taken Xiao’s advice, while seeking US Navy submarines for a purpose he cannot name.
Michael Shoebridge is director of Strategic Analysis Australia.
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