Wacky theories yet another turn-off for jaded voters

The federal election campaign was extraordinary in many aspects, but the emergence of conspiracy theory as mainstream politics was especially notable.

There were conspiracies about the Port Arthur massacre, 9/11, vaccinations, Muslims, conservatives and, the perennial target, Jews. The conspiracies were endorsed by candidates from across the political spectrum. Even former leaders of Australia’s major parties have contended that powerful conspirators plotted against them in secret. It is a political trend that should be corrected.

The dismal decade of federal politics broke the bond of trust between government and people. The media is viewed as more or less trustworthy to the degree that it is perceived as powerful in shaping election outcomes.

Former Labor leader Bill Shorten held sections of the media culpable for his side losing. At a caucus meeting, he said “powerful vested interests” had targeted Labor in the media. He said: “Neither of these challenges disappeared on election night. They’re still out there for us to face.”

Shortly after the Liberal partyroom voted against him, Malcolm Turnbull offered a similar view of events, saying: “There was a determined insurgency from a number of people both in the partyroom and backed by voices, powerful voices in the media really to, if not bring down the government, certainly bring down my prime ministership.”

ABC political editor Andrew Probyn alleged a media conspiracy drove Turnbull out of office. Gerard Henderson exposed the problem with the allegation: “The ABC has told The Australian the alleged comments by (Rupert) Murdoch to (Kerry) Stokes that Turnbull had to go, were relayed to the broadcaster by Turnbull. In short, it’s hearsay — in that Turnbull told Probyn what Stokes ­allegedly told Turnbull about what Murdoch allegedly said.”

It is convenient for politicians to hide behind fantastic conspiracies of corporate leviathans and media monsters out for their heads. In the case of Shorten and Turnbull, however, the unfavourable coverage came after the fact of their failure to lead in the ­national interest.

Turnbull was ousted after a series of serious policy missteps and political blunders. He did not create a convincing case for corporate tax cuts. He did not correct the Gonski education plan that many perceived as punitive to the Catholic sector on per capita funding terms. He overplayed his hand on environmental policy by ignoring backbench calls to decouple the national energy guarantee from the Paris target. He had no reply to the criticism that Australia’s economic health would be compromised by onerous environmental obligations to international institutions.

Most important, Turnbull failed to meet the standards he set for himself when he took office from Tony Abbott. He should hold himself to account.

Like Turnbull, Shorten ended his term as leader by taking pot shots at the media. It is easier to shift blame than face the reality of millions voting against your leadership, your party and your vision.

But Shorten was unpopular with voters, politically inept, a lacklustre policymaker and arrogant under attack.

He promoted a big-taxing, big-spending agenda. He refused to reveal the full cost for Labor’s environmental reforms. He was vicious in the face of dissent and smeared independent analyst Brian Fisher for trying to cost the ALP’s green agenda.

In addition, Labor failed to defend freedom of speech and religion. And Shorten stepped way over the mark in the lead-up to the election by offering the ABC more funding if the party won office. A politician aspiring to lead a democratic state cannot behave like an autocrat favouring state-controlled media and expect the free press to give him a free ride.

The pressure brought to bear on politicians is undeniable. It is perhaps understandable that following a shock defeat, they might attack the media for exposing their faults. But leaders ought to resist the casual erosion of studied reason by conspiratorial thought.

Conspiracy theory provides a sense of refuge in uncertain times. As noted by political scientists ­Joseph Uscinski and Joseph Parent, lab experiments have found that “inducing anxiety or loss of control triggers respondents to see non-existent patterns and evoke conspiratorial explanations”.

Academics Jan-Willem van Prooijen and Mark van Vugt isolated five elements of conspiracy theory: a hypothesised pattern between people, objects or events; a belief that alleged conspirators act with intent; a belief there is a coalition or group behind the conspiracy; an element of threat such as harm or deception; and an element of secrecy that makes the theory difficult to disprove.

Research demonstrates that external shocks such as unemployment or natural disasters can lead people to think that powerful and secret coalitions are working against them. Of course, sometimes people truly are victimised by a mob. However, conspiracy theorists stand out for their consistent failure to establish a causal relationship between events or acknowledge when they get it wrong.

Conspiratorial beliefs can be harmless and transient, or very dangerous. In Africa, for example, a conspiracy theory about the CIA creating AIDS resulted in people refusing to seek treatment.

During some Ebola outbreaks, locals attacked medical facilities because they believed Western powers were spreading the virus deliberately. Health conspiracies once confined to disadvantaged populations are becoming evident in the West, where highly educated people are refusing potentially lifesaving treatments such as ­vaccinations.

Traditionally, outsiders and fringe-dwellers were considered especially vulnerable to conspiratorial thinking.

However, it is becoming more common. Research suggests it cuts across partisan lines and the Australian election campaign adds to the weight of evidence.

The media exposed candidates from the left-wing Greens and right-wing One Nation who believed in conspiracies about the Port Arthur massacre.

An investigation by news.com.au found that candidates running for senator Fraser Anning’s Conservative National Party posted conspiracies about vaccinations and gay people. Posters of Liberal MP Julian Leeser were defaced with dollar signs, an allusion to the old conspiracy about an international cabal of Jewish financiers running the world. Other conservative candidates were likened to Nazis.

In enlightened societies, the revelation of truth creates the momentum for human progress. Conspiratorial thought frustrates the discovery of truth. As such, it must be resisted.