Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Indigenous voice to parliament ‘Yes’ campaign strategy is faltering

Anthony Albanese with the Referendum Working Group. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Only several months out from the referendum and the Indigenous voice to parliament is in trouble.

The strength of the No vote is now significant and the Newspoll results may well come as a shock to the other side.

The findings don’t bode well for Anthony Albanese, whose political strategy to hold back detail of the voice to parliament and go on the vibe of constitutional recognition is clearly failing.

The Prime Minister’s conviction that the moral imperative will win over Australians is being put to the test.

The first Newspoll to present voters with the precise wording of the referendum question suggests that if it were held this weekend, it could go either way.

As the political debate becomes more partisan, so too have the electoral divisions deepened.

There is now a chasm between regional and metropolitan voters, just as there is a generational split.

There are divisions across almost every demographic. The university-educated and tradies, the young and the old, Labor and Liberal and city and bush.

These partitions will be a significant challenge for Albanese to overcome as he pushes back against the opposition claims that the model the government is pushing ahead with is itself divisive.

The poll results suggest the debate is now shaping up as one being led by elites on one side and everybody else on the other.

The poll results also stand as a warning sign for advocate business leaders that their customer base and employees may not necessarily be signed up to the inevitability of the referendum’s assumed success.

Previous polls conducted prior to the wording having been settled have presented a more general question.

All these polls showed support for the Yes case at slightly more than 50 per cent. The general consensus was that momentum for the proposition had stalled.

The new survey showing support at just 46 per cent – with 11 per cent undecided – would suggest that it might struggle to pass the second test, a majority of states.

The results can only suggest that the No campaign, as disparate a grouping as it is, is succeeding in presenting a more effective and cleaner message.

The Yes campaign approach, meanwhile, appears heavily influenced by the experience of the ’99 republic referendum and the question of too much detail.

So far, the polls show no sign of issue leakage, with Labor voters appearing to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

While a quarter of Labor supporters say they will vote No, it hasn’t impacted broader voting intention.

Albanese remains dominant and the popular support for the party remains comparatively high.

Yet on the voice numbers, it is clearly apparent that Albanese is losing the argument. Having ruled out concessions, in a high-risk strategy, time is running out.