US, world should fear new Donald Trump presidency

Donald Trump Atlanta mugshot.

The mugshot of the disgraced Donald Trump after being arrested at Georgia’s Fulton County jail for attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election is one of the most iconic photos of our time. Not surprisingly, Trump has already monetised it, offering it for sale on shirts, cups and stickers, and earning $US7.1m ($11m) in 24 hours.

The only person to blame for Trump’s multiple indictments is himself, and it would have been riskier not to have charged him given the threat he continues to pose to democracy. This is not a political witch hunt but about the survival of the great republic. This is what was at stake if Trump had succeeded in 2020 and is at stake if he reclaims the presidency in 2024. The criminal Trump has not been indicted for disputing an election result or challenging it in court, but for attempting to steal it. The former president tried to subvert the democratic process and then incited a destructive and deadly riot at the US Capitol aimed at overturning the certification of electoral college votes.

A concerted and co-ordinated effort to undermine and sabotage an election is one of the gravest crimes anybody can commit in a democracy. If Trump had succeeded, the US would have slid towards an autocracy. There can be no gainsaying this. It is absurd to blame Democrats for Trump’s indictments given that those most damning of Trump are his former Republican staff and officials.

The evidence against Trump and 18 others named in the latest and most sweeping indictment is overwhelming. The charges include lying to state officials, harassing and intimidating election workers, forgery and attempting to cover up their crimes. All 19 have also been charged under Georgia’s racketeering laws, designed to bring organised crime groups to justice.

It follows three other indictments. The previous federal grand jury indictment named four charges: conspiracy to defraud the US; conspiracy to obstruct congressional certification of the 2020 electoral college vote; obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and; conspiracy against rights. Trump has also been indicted over keeping boxes of highly classified documents and making hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels.

While all of this is unprecedented for a former US president, the Georgia indictment, after an investigation led by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, is more serious because it is a state indictment. There can be no federal pardon by a re-elected president Trump (or his crony) to save himself from facing prison time if found guilty. Nobody is above the law, even presidents.

What was the alternative? Let Trump get away with serious felonies that violated state and federal law, and struck at the heart of US democracy? That would only serve to embolden Trump to commit even more federal and state crimes. He has, after all, called for the “termination” of the US constitution.

As special counsel Jack Smith noted, Trump is entitled to falsely claim he won the last election, but he is not entitled to overturn it. He was also entitled to seek legal avenues to challenge the election results, which he did, but he is not entitled to subvert the legal and democratic process with false claims, intimidation, forgery and conspiracy.

Yet for all of this, Trump has an effective lock on the Republican nomination for president in 2024. The Republican Party has long ceased to be. It is now a cult of personality around Trump. For evidence of this, look no further than a recent CBS poll of Trump voters who said they are more likely to believe he is telling the truth (71 per cent) compared to friends and family (63 per cent), conservative media figures (56 per cent) and religious leaders (42 per cent).

In the Republican presidential candidate debate last week, almost all of them pledged to pardon Trump if they won the presidency and he was convicted. Vivek Ramaswamy, the most vocal Trump supporter, has previously written that claims of 2020 electoral fraud “weren’t grounded in fact” and “what he delivered in the end was another tale of grievance, a persecution complex that swallowed much of the Republican Party whole”. But now he says he would pardon Trump “on day one”.

What a second Trump presidency would mean for the US and Australia is examined in Bruce Wolpe’s new book, Trump’s Australia (Allen & Unwin). It makes for sober reading. Wolpe, who worked with US Democrats and for prime minister Julia Gillard, suggests US democracy will be under siege if Trump is re-elected. He also examines the impact of a Trump presidency on US allies such as Australia.

For a start, the $368bn trilateral defence pact with the US and UK to acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines by 2055 would be in jeopardy. The US was an unreliable ally during the Trump presidency as he trashed historic partnerships and abused world leaders. Congressional Republicans have repeatedly threatened to scuttle AUKUS.

In Christoffer Guldbrandsen’s documentary, A Storm Foretold, a candid Roger Stone said Trump was “the greatest single mistake in American history”. He is right about that. He began by debasing the political culture and repudiating established norms and conventions. He ended his single term with no regard for the rule of law or free and fair elections.

The 2024 election will be about the survival of US democracy. Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination for president but he is not certain to defeat Joe Biden. If Trump loses again, he will incite further unrest and violence. But if Trump wins, he will, as flagged, move to terminate democracy. The US, and the world, will pay a heavy price if Trump regains the presidency.