US President Biden survives a high stakes State of the Union address but will it help him defeat a resurgent Donald Trump?

US President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address.

Joe Biden has survived one of the most perilous moments of his presidency by making a surprisingly strong State of the Union speech, but there is no guarantee that it will revitalise his sinking prospects of winning a second term in the White House.

It is impossible to overstate the stakes that Biden faced in giving this key speech, the most important he will deliver to a prime time audience before his November showdown with Donald Trump.

His approval ratings are underwater, his disapproval ratings have never been higher, most Americans think he is too old for the job and his old nemesis Trump is coming at him so fast that betting markets say Trump is now the favourite.

Given all of this, even the slightest gaffe, the most minor ‘senior’s moment,’ would have been replayed on loop across the US reinforcing the growing narrative that Biden is too old to serve a second term in office.

Instead, Biden gave a solid and competent speech, not exactly vigorous, but also not one which further reinforced his doddery image.

On substance, Biden chose to serve it up to Republicans on the issues he believes Democrats hold the advantage on such as commitment to Ukraine, abortion rights and a willingness to defend democracy at home and abroad.

Biden did this by referring to Trump repeatedly as ‘my predecessor’ but never by name. It was a speech directly targeted at working and middle class families, the heartland which Biden must hold to stay in office.

Biden used the occasion to underline his commitment to an activist America on the global stage, using every opportunity to contrast it with the growing isolationism of MAGA Republicans, including their ongoing reluctance to keep funding the war in Ukraine.

He attacked Russian president Vladimir Putin and contrasted former Republican president Ronald Reagan’s famous call to tear down the Berlin Wall to Trump’s cosying up to the Russian leader.

Biden’s decision in his speech to focus heavily on support for abortion rights reflects polling which shows the issue is a major winner for the Democrats in this election year. The overturning of Roe v Wade by the conservative-majority Supreme Court, a move which Trump cheered at the time, has become an albatross for Republicans who are learning that moderate American woman of all political persuasions are hostile to the type of state-led abortion bans which have become a feature in conservative states.

Biden used his speech to try hard to sell his economic achievements, but there is a disconnect in the mind of Americans between what economic statistics show and how they feel about their own situation. By any measure, the US economy is fast-improving, but Biden cannot convince voters that he is responsible. Instead they remain wounded by the rampant inflation of the past few years and while it is now falling, the prices of key items like homes, cars and groceries remain too high for many. Trump is miles ahead of Biden when voters are asked who would be the better economic manager.

Biden flanked by Vice President Kamala Harris and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson.

Biden can only hope that as the economy continues to improve closer to election day, it will become less of a liability for him and less of a campaign issue.

In the speech Biden sought to try to blame Republicans for their self-serving decision last month to stymie a border bill to impose tougher measures. Republicans walked away from the bipartisan bill under pressure from Trump who didn’t want to give a political win to Biden on the border so close to the election. It was disgraceful behaviour when such a bill would have helped reduce the chaos at the border. But Biden cannot escape the reality that his administration has been a disaster on border security, where the deliberate loosening of border security policies has sparked an unprecedented influx of illegal migrants.

He talked tough in his speech about the need for tougher border controls but in the eyes of many voters, it is too late and Biden is likely to be punished at the ballot box for it.

History shows that State of the Union addresses rarely deliver any lasting benefit to presidents in the polls. The risk for Biden in this year’s speech was all on the downside. But the fact that he came through it relatively unscathed is a win in itself, and Biden will take any win he can get right now.