US election: Fairweather friends? Trump needs his fans to vote

Illustration: John Tiedemann

We are just over a week from voting and Donald Trump has given up trying to convince swing voters to back him.

Everything he says and does is about getting pro-Trump Americans to go out and vote. His remarkable three rallies a day and his attacks on the Biden family finances are all about firing up voter turnout in key states such as like Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Of course, this seems strange for many Australian politicians. Our election campaigns are a fight for the swinging voter. Our party base is usually locked in and, as we approach the last week before polling day, candidates are frantically searching for the undecided or soft voters that will determine the outcome.

In Australian elections policies also matter more than personalities. Think the 1993 and 1998 GST elections, the carbon and mining taxes in 2010 and 2013, or the “Mediscare” election of 2016. But policy debates rarely decide American elections.

If there was any doubt, it all ended during the final debate. The candidates took their predictable sides on the response to the coronavirus, Obamacare, race relations and candidate family finances. Trump partly lost the fight because the much-lauded debate controller, Kristen Welker, didn’t raise the issues that Trump polls strongly on such as the economy, law and order or taxes. Welker talked over Trump 40 times. She interrupted Joe Biden on eight occasions.

It’s a shame. Good policy will make America stronger. Personality politics is vanity politics.

Swing voters such as our fictional Mary Milwaukee, a working-class mother of two children, are discerning. They are listening to the candidate that can make their lives better. They want answers on job security, income security and law and order.

In case no one noticed, America is in recession. And there is not enough debate about how to end the economic malaise.

Some are trying. For example, the independent ratings agency Moody’s says Biden’s economic policies will deliver 7 million more jobs than Trump’s plan. In contrast, the respected Hoover Institution says Biden’s full agenda will punish the American economy and reduce its size by a massive 8 per cent. It might be lofty stuff but it affects Mary’s household income.

In 2016 Mary Milwaukee voted for Trump’s policies, and she didn’t like Hillary Clinton. This time policy differences seem less important. Joe Biden has played a really clever game. He is widely respected and he is Teflon when it comes to criticism. Trump’s political strength is his ability to negatively define his opponents. It is now too late for him to label Biden in the same way he branded Clinton as “crooked”. He nailed others as “little” Marco Rubio, “low-energy” Jeb Bush and “Lyin’” Ted Cruz. His moniker of “sleepy” for Biden did not stick. His pivot to “crooked” is not working.

Don’t forget that even after Trump’s full-frontal attacks most Americans still wanted Clinton. She won thee million more votes. But they lived in the wrong places and Trump carried the electoral college with policies that appealed to the right people in the right states.

So now that swing voters and good policy have no role in the election, it comes down to turnout. Will the Trump loyalists get out there? Biden doesn’t need to worry too much given that all the Trump haters are highly energised.

Early indications are that this election will see more Americans vote than at any other time. A total of 138 million Americans voted last time. This election it could top 150 million. As a percentage of the voting age population more Americans are likely to vote this year than at any time since 1968.

The losing candidate this year will probably receive more votes than any previous winner. That means the divisions across communities will be deeper unless the winner finds a way to heal the massive crevice running through the middle of this community.

Of course 1968 was the last significant period of domestic upheaval in American society – America was losing the Vietnam War and night after night, and for the first time, Americans saw graphic images of the horrors of such conflict. There was no escaping the bad news.

To make matters worse several cities were burned and looted nightly for months as protests unfolded following the assassinations of both Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. There was no let-up in the bad news.

The White House incumbent, president Lyndon B. Johnson, was seen as a divisive figure. He was a Democrat that split his party with landmark racial equality legislation. He was gruff and overbearing. He also had an insatiable appetite for news media.

By that election, exhausted Americans wanted change. Johnson stood down and chose not to run again before his party and the American people could throw him out of the White House. Trump is not a quitter. He is energised by the fight. And he needs the American people to join the battle.

A record 65 million votes are already cast – almost half the total cast in 2016 – and Americans are queuing for up to 10 hours to vote. Imagine that in Australia.

Indications are that the numbers on voter turnout are heavily favouring the Democrats. Of the 19 states that report registered party affiliations, about half all early voters are Democrats, 28 per cent Republicans and the rest independents. In crucial swing states like Florida numbers are closer. Moreover, voters may not vote in line with party affiliations.

I think Mary Milwaukee’s mind is made up. She will vote for Biden. She wants Trump’s policies but Biden’s demeanour. Above all else she wants to calm things down. Biden is a benign alternative.

The remaining question is whether she will brave bad weather, a four-hour queue and a new coronavirus lockdown in Wisconsin to go to vote. If she doesn’t vote, Trump still has a chance.

Joe Hockey is a former federal treasurer and ambassador to the US. He is president of advisory firm Bondi Partners.