Who wants to write him off?
Donald Trump, who for a man so recently sick looks on the eve of the 2020 election so incredibly energetic.
He did five stops yesterday.
He’ll do more today.
He is not going down without a fight and when he’s in a mood like that, who dares write him off?
He has grown to love the job he didn’t ever think he’d get a chance to do.
He believes that he’s done good things: he’s pulled troops out of trouble spots; he has released nonviolent prisoners from jail; he has negotiated with Israel and her neighbours, more effectively than anyone would have believed possible.
The economy was booming before COVID-19.
It’s still doing okay.
He’s mishandled the pandemic, but so have many countries in the northern hemisphere, and it’s just not clear that voters hold him responsible.
He wants another term – the New Yorker today says he needs one, to stay out of prison – but all the polls are saying: bad luck, Don, it’s over.
Joe Biden’s going to win.
But where exactly are the votes that Biden needs?
In Pennsylvania?
A state that relies heavily on the old-school industries Biden wants to close down?
In Florida?
It’s practically Trump’s home state.
In Iowa?
Well, here’s where things are getting interesting.
The national polls are pointless. Don’t even look at them. There are too many people in the big states – California and New York – who loathe Trump; he’s never going to win those states, and the opinions of those who live in them skew the results.
They also skew media coverage.
Today’s New York Times poll, for example, has Biden is leading by a wide margin in all the states he needs to win.
It says he’s ahead in the north (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) and he’s ahead in the sun belt (Florida and Arizona.)
Trump won all four of them in 2016.
And here’s the problem: Biden would need to win at least two, and probably three, and maybe even all four of them to get over the line.
The Times says Biden is also ahead in Florida, by three points, 47 per cent to 44 per cent,
And in Michigan, which makes slightly more sense.
If Biden wins all these, well, he’s very likely home.
But there’s a few other polls out there, and they don’t look anywhere near as good.
Everyone is today talking about the Des Moines Register poll from Iowa.
This one poll is giving Trump backers hope and Democrats anxiety | Analysis https://t.co/MVG1Vn37EO pic.twitter.com/1U4KL5jnlP
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) November 1, 2020
It has Trump way in front of Biden, 48-41.
If that is right, then Trump is in a much better spot than anyone else seems to think.
Now, Biden’s pathway to 270 – the number of electoral college votes he needs – doesn’t necessarily run through Iowa.
But if every other poll is wrong about every other place?
Four years ago, this same poll had Trump up by an identical 7 points in Iowa. Trump won by 9 points.
Yes, it’s all speculation. And that’s part of the fun. And do you know what is really odd? When you walk around just talking to people, saying, hey, do you think Trump can win?
A huge percentage of them nod.
They say yes, I hope so, or else they say, yes, and they’re dreading it, but they still say yes.
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