Anyone calling the outcome of the US presidential election is either guessing or gambling.
Opinion polls, advertising spends, rallies and media advocacy can’t make up for the fact that a phenomenal early voting turnout combined with a rampant pandemic have made this election unreadable.
To make it even more confusing, the American electoral system is a mess. Already over 240 lawsuits challenging the voting process have already been filed in the courts.
Behind the scenes there is optimism and pessimism in both teams.
Insiders in the Republican National Committee tell me that the party is on track to lose the Senate to the Democrats. Normally a senate race is closely aligned with the presidential race. Or so you would think!
This is not a normal election. Donald Trump is on track to win some States by large margins and then lose local representatives. Steve Bullock may win Montana for the Democrats and Senator Lindsay Graham may lose South Carolina for the Republicans, both states Donald Trump will win by 15 points.
Similarly Trump may win Arizona, Georgia and Colorado but lose key senators like Martha McSally, David Perdue and Cory Gardner.
And Democrat insiders are now despondent about lower than expected minority Black and Hispanic voter turnouts in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania. These are crucial demographics that have traditionally supported the blue team.
Trump’s energy has also forced commentators and critics to take another look at the numbers. When 29,000 people turned up at an airport in Omaha, Nebraska for yet another pumped up Trump rally it spooked the nay sayers. The Republicans claim that up to 30 per cent of attendees have neither voted before or have voted Democrat. More importantly it’s a stark visual comparison with Joe Biden’s more coronavirus-friendly car rallies.
And the intensity will grow. This President is amping it up to four rallies in four cities each day.
It’s an unprecedented schedule for a sitting president. The transportation and security logistics are extraordinary and hugely complicated. But Trump’s energy is infectious both ways.
When a work colleague in New York told me that she had queued up with her daughter for five hours and 15 minutes to vote against Trump last week it simply confirmed the passion he generates.
Trump has created a level of enthusiasm amongst voters that is almost beyond comprehension. This election is on track for the highest voter turnout since 1968.
And his rallies are working. They are great entertainment but they are also honest, indulgent, humorous and frightening. Trump is like a cult leader to his supporters and Lucifer to his critics. His campaign cut-through line is that he is “not a politician”. Maybe that’s why the Republican politicians in the Senate are in trouble.
I won’t call a possible election result unless there is no way a candidate can win.
Hillary Clinton couldn’t win in 2016 because the FBI started investigating her just one week out from polling day. It gave credence to Trump’s claim that she was “crooked”.
Because of passion, policies and participation, Trump can still win.
His call to battle is working. As of today more people have voted in Texas before polling day than voted in the entire 2016 election. The numbers are mind-blowing. Across the nation, no one knows how many more people will vote on Tuesday. Normally bad weather has an impact on polling day but social distancing has complicated the equation.
At the same time, Trump has smashed voting stereotypes. For example, he is getting a larger than expected Black vote in Michigan. On the other hand, the anti-Trump vote is winning over more white suburban women for Biden.
And each state is now reporting demographic variations. My friends in Florida indicate that more Hispanics and young people are voting early for Trump than anyone expected. Miami is apparently wallpapered in Trump posters.
Alternatively in the safest Republican strongholds of Texas, friends report an avalanche of Biden signs. They say it’s not worth the fight putting up Trump signs in their yards and being yelled at.
I know that few people are prepared to put candidate signs in their front yards let alone in support of someone that has been so vilified. Trump has been accused of everything from sexual molestation to corruption and racism. There has been no let up in the vilification since he won the nomination more than four years ago.
Still some have had the courage to speak out. This week Golf God Jack Nicklaus and a host of others came out to endorse the president. Many have decried Trump’s tweets and vindictive words, but they all said they are voting for him because they support his policies.
This confirms my suspicion of a very large “quiet Trump vote”.
In 2016 Trump did much better than expected in key states that decided the election. His “overperformance” in Wisconsin 6.4 per cent, Pennsylvania 4.9 per cent, North Carolina 4.5 per cent, Michigan 4.3 per cent and Florida 1.9 per cent turned states the polls said he was losing into winners on election night. This time around if just 3 out of every 100 Trump supporters who have refused to answer a pollster turns in a vote, then Trump will win.
According to the respected Real Clear Politics website, the current Biden margin in key battleground states is an average 3 per cent. It may not be enough to win. In smaller states people are polled to death. I am sure they are over the polling.
In South Carolina alone the two senate candidates have spent over $200m on this campaign. That excludes presidential and down the ticket candidate spending which could exceed another $100m. For voters it’s exhausting. They must be running away screaming hysterically when they see another advertisement or get another phone call.
At the moment it looks like Pennsylvania will hold the keys to the White House. If Trump’s “quiet voters” go and vote, then he will hold enough states to be close to Joe Biden on Tuesday night. With a quirky election process, the 20 electoral votes of Pennsylvania will not be decided on the night unless someone has a thumping victory. That makes for a long week.
It’s a real possibility. Trump has been clawing back his opponent’s narrow lead in the state with a combination of high energy rallies and capitalisation on Joe Biden’s only policy mistake in the campaign, opening the debate on fossil fuels and fracking.
There is much symbolism in Pennsylvania’s voting history. It is traditionally a working class state that has been a Democratic stronghold as a bastion of manufacturing and mining. However, in recent years union membership has halved and blue collar families blame free trade and environmental policies for the demise of their industries.
Biden has done a good job clawing back the perceptions that his party has abandoned the workers, but his stumble on fuel policy left many wondering whether he really is controlled by the “greens and socialists”.
Trump’s strength has been his ability to win over the disenfranchised white working class of America. They forgive him for his words and tweets. They love that he speaks for them and their values.
Like our own Jimmy Barnes, rock legend Bruce Springsteen is a great symbol of working class values. His ballads from “Born in the USA’ to “Streets of Philadelphia” encapsulate the struggles of modern America. Over the last few weeks Springsteen has been railing against Trump and has even threatened to move to Australia if Trump is re-elected.
Perhaps, Springsteen has lost touch with his fans. Perhaps he no longer sings for the workers.
Biden can’t be blamed if Trump wins this election on the back of states like Pennsylvania. America has changed and the major political parties have been slow to react. Individuals react faster to changing environments than institutions. Trump is speaking to the audience that Springsteen eulogised but now lectures and threatens.
There is a transition in American society that is still unfolding and the two main parties are still coming to grips with it.
No matter what happens on Tuesday the political and economic disruption in the world’s most powerful nation has only just started.
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