“When and how will the war in Ukraine end?” As Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia, it’s the question I hear most often from Australians – be they high-ranking officials or the owner of my local takeaway in suburban Canberra.
It’s a totally reasonable question. Indeed, it’s presently all too easy to look out at the world and to see a great deal of conflict and chaos, and to therefore want to know this is not a permanent picture. I can understand that some Australians and others might be weary and worried about world affairs, including as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has now entered its third bloody year.
It’s hard to see horrific images in one’s feed and hear horrible stories in the media cycle day after day; it’s hard to bear increases in the cost of living from the supply chains disrupted by the war.
For Ukrainians, the war against us is tragically not only about news reports. It’s about the dire daily reality of 30,000 civilian casualties, constant bombings of our cities, kidnapping of some 20,000 of our children, destruction of some 5000 schools and hospitals, and illegal occupation of part of our country by a brutal foreign military.
More than anyone else, it is Ukrainians who want the war to end, and we believe there is a clear path to that goal. Namely, the fastest way to end the war and its human and economic impacts is for Ukraine to be victorious over Russian occupation.
During 2023, even without air power, Ukraine made some progress in pushing out Russian forces, including effectively neutralising the entire Black Sea Fleet using innovative marine drones. However, our progress was unfortunately limited by a lack of decisive military supply from allies whose values we fight for.
Military aid to date has helped Ukraine to defend ourselves from Russian conquest and its ethnocidal consequences. Going forward, though, we urge the West to pivot to the type of military aid that provides conclusive capability. In 2024, Ukraine needs the best tools and weapons that not only check Vladimir Putin but defeat him and his ambition to dominate the global rules-based order and destroy our democracies.
The second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukrainians is a wake-up call to Australia about the risks of acceding to Putin’s autocratic Russia. If Putin is not comprehensively stopped in Ukraine in 2024 by using the top technology, the West risks escalation and fighting him elsewhere in the future.
Despite domestic political distractions, our firm friends in Washington, Europe’s capitals and Canberra have started to step up to that strategic imperative. Ukraine expects to receive critical fighter jets in the next six months from the newly formed “air defence coalition” of 15 ally nations.
There will be opportunities for Australia to contribute to the “air power coalition” if there is surplus military equipment in the future. New and smarter military strategies are being developed and will soon be rolled out by Ukraine’s high command.
Ukraine’s resilience remains unchanged. The West, including Australia, must be ready to give Ukraine what it takes to win. The endgame needs to be enabled.
The character of this war has moved from a war of artillery to a war of first-person-view drones and flying aviation bombs. While domestic production of drones and related tech is booming in Ukraine, Ukraine needs a significant increase in aircraft power to go forward.
Following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s generous pledge of $50m to the International Fund to Ukraine, Australia is now sixth among non-NATO countries – after Japan, South Korea, Austria, Switzerland and Sweden – in terms of Ukraine aid. Its contributions to date are truly appreciated; via Bushmasters and other vehicles used for medevac, Australia has particularly made a direct difference in saving Ukrainian lives.
In this distinct and final phase of the war, Australia – with the world’s ninth-largest defence budget at over $30bn – can make a further decisive difference.
This year, we want to work with our Australian partners on a proactive plan that provides “smart support” to Ukraine that is: lower-cost, surplus to Defence requirements, lifesaving, decisive in impact, and aligned with Australia’s areas of expertise in defence technology.
In a survey reported by The Australian, an overwhelming proportion of Australians (82 per cent) believe their government should provide at least current levels of support to Ukraine, with a rise in those who believe the government should provide more aid to Ukraine – increasing from 17 per cent in June 2023 to 24 per cent now.
Frankly, there does not need to be a third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukrainians.
But if the war draws on through lack of Western leadership and resolve, it will have a further impact on Australians’ way of life including through increased fuel, fertiliser and food prices, as well as on stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.
Supporting Ukraine is not a donation. It’s an investment in like-minded collective security that will generate a direct peace dividend to Australia in the future.
Australia and the West need to believe in themselves and pursue the clear goal of victory over an enemy that threatens us all. That’s when and how the war on Ukraine will end.
Vasyl Myroshnychenko is Ukraine’s ambassador to Australia.
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