Trump plays down China threat in message to Xi
This is an extraordinary message from a US President which is totally contrary to that conveyed to Australia by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and US Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby.
Trump’s comments on Taiwan in particular will reverberate across the world and especially in the Indo-Pacific region where, only this weekend, a Chinese fighter-jet dropped flares dangerously close to an Australian P-8A Posiedon patrol aircraft in international airspace above the South China Sea.
His comments also fly in the face of warnings from prominent security analysts that Albanese’s stabilisation of relations between Canberra and Beijing could be problematic in his development of closer ties with Trump himself.
When asked by The Australian whether he viewed AUKUS as a deterrent against Chinese aggression against Taiwan, Trump agreed it was – but he then took a further step.
He expressed confidence that AUKUS would not need to be used as a deterrent against China at all.
“I don’t think we’re going to need it,” he said. “I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that.”
“First of all, the United States is the strongest military power in the world by far. It’s not even close,” he said. “We have the best equipment.”
“I don’t see that at all with President Xi. I think we’re going to get along very well as it pertains to Taiwan and others. Now that doesn’t mean it’s not the apple of his eye, because probably it is. But I don’t see anything happening.”
This is an insight into Trump’s transactional and mercurial nature. Yet his comments are unlikely to fool anyone.
They can only be seen as an attempt by the US President to smooth things over with Beijing so he can clinch a trade deal at his upcoming meeting with Xi at the APEC Summit in South Korea.
Beijing has shocked Washington and the world by threatening to exert much greater control over rare earth supply chains from December, a move that could restrict the flow of smartphones, cars and even household appliances across the globe.
While the US President has threatened to respond by lifting tariffs on China by an extra 100 per cent, America was clearly caught on the back-foot by the move.
Trump is now pivoting in a bid to de-escalate trade tensions – a sign that Beijing holds the leverage in the trade relationship with Washington.
The reality is that planning at the Pentagon is also proceeding on the basis that a 2027 timeline for an attempt by Beijing to reclaim Taiwan is, very much, a realistic possibility.
Indeed, Colby – the key policy tsar inside the Pentagon – is widely known to take this timeline incredibly seriously and is adjusting the US force posture accordingly.
Earlier this year, Colby even asked Australia for details about what it could provide by way of support in the event of a contingency in the Taiwan Strait. He was informed that Australia would not make a pre-commitment to any conflict over Taiwan.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue in May, Hegseth declared that it was public information that “Xi has ordered his military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027.”
“The PLA is building the military needed to do it. Training for it every day,” he said.
Hegeseth added that “any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world. There’s no reason to sugar-coat it. The threat China poses is real.”
Nothing in the strategic situation has changed. And Trump knows this.
But the US President also understands that the world will be looking to him to land a deal in South Korea with Xi.
In the end, he chose to use his meeting with Albanese to send a signal to Beijing that he is ready to do business.
Why have climate alarmists suddenly gone quiet?
Donald Trump has used his meeting with Anthony Albanese to drastically play down the China threat and dismiss the prospect of Xi Jinping retaking Taiwan, even suggesting that AUKUS would not be needed to deter Beijing.