Temperatures are rising and fossil fuel use is increasing with no sign of peaking. Despite the extraordinary growth in renewable energy the world overwhelmingly is powered by fossil fuels. This will continue as the yearly rise in global energy use is greater than investment in renewable energy, which has been showing signs of fatigue.
To change the trend, the UN’s United in Science report calls for a doubling of effort to meet the two-degree target and a five-fold step-up to limit future warming to the more ambitious 1.5C.
Rather than new findings, the report brings together the already published state of play. It mentions recent extreme weather and says the pace of sea level rise has accelerated from 3mm to 4mm a year.
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The main purpose of the report was to lay a foundation for action at the special UN climate summit called by Secretary General Antonio Guterres in New York this week. About 60 nations were to make presentations to the UN Assembly on what they would do to increase action on climate change.
The report underscores the fact pledges made under the Paris Agreement will not achieve anywhere near what is judged to be needed.
According to the report, current commitments are estimated to lower global emissions in 2030 by up to six gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent compared to a continuation of current policies. If implemented this would still see temperatures rise by between 2.9 and 3.4C by 2100, the report says.
This level of ambition is a fraction of what the UN says is required. But none of the big emissions nations, the US, China, India or the European Union are expected to offer to do more.
Rather, discussions remain mired in the same old arguments about how there must be different responsibilities for developed and developing countries and funding.
The UN report says technically it still is possible to bridge the gap in 2030 to ensure global warming stays below 2C and 1.5C. But the evidence is that even existing ambitions are proving difficult for many countries to honour.
This should be no surprise. It has been anticipated by big thinkers such as Bill Gates and was at the heart of a Mission Innovation program unveiled in Paris to boost research funding. Governments, including Australia, have fallen well short on what was pledged.
It is time to redouble efforts to invest in new solutions.
Merz steps up, crunch point near
New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s frank assertion at the G7 summit – that in attacking Iran, ‘Israel is doing the dirty work for all of us’ – provided a welcome reality check.
Chalmers’ ambitious drive to boost living standards
Jim Chalmers’ admission that Labor’s budget ‘is not sustainable’ has raised hopes that the productivity roundtable will be part of significant reforms to boost growth and strengthen the economy and defend living standards.
A sobering lesson from the latest UN science report on climate is not how much still needs to be done but how little has been achieved for all the effort and money already spent.